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Wednesday, June 6, 2012

USDCHF Forecast (6 Jun 2012)

Daily Chart

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Looking at the daily chart, I still think that the rally is a wave B rally in an expanded flat, which means we can start looking for nice shorting opportunities once the rally is complete.

4H Chart

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On the 4h chart, my preferred count is that we have completed wave v of 3, and are in the process of a wave 4 decline.  The decline while strong looks very much like a 3-wave structure. And since it is a wave 4 decline, I’m expecting a deeper retracement to correct the entire wave 3 structure.

15min Chart

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Down to the 15min chart now.  Even at the 15min chart, the decline looks corrective.  And it looks like we have a 5 wave up for a wave a of (b).  My view of the short term is a rally to around the 0.9685 region where we can look for shorting opportunities.

If you are feeling adventurous, you can look at taking a long position when price makes a higher high, with a stop below the low of wave (a) around 0.9570. Remember though, that in the daily timeframe, there’s a long pin bar which may indicate a larger decline in the longer time frame.

Immediate-Term Bias : Bullish
Medium-Term Bias : Bearish

Safe Trading!