Commitments of Traders (COT) - 19 May 08

The new COT figures are out. And I realised that all the information is provided in a single article by DailyFX, so I need no put up multiple links. Haha... Here it is.

COT Report - COT Favours Dollar Weakness

On my own trades, I'm short on AUDUSD, EURGBP, and USDCHF. Actually, shorting AUDUSD and USDCHF is almost equivalent to shorting AUDCHF, so I took a peek at the AUDCHF chart which does look abit bearish to me.

That's it for now! Good luck with your trades.

Commitments of Traders (COT) - 05 May 08

The COT for 05 May 08 is out, click on the following links for the currency that you are interested in: COT 05/05 - AUD (Bearish)
COT 05/05 - CAD (Neutral)
COT 05/05 - CHF (Neutral)
COT 05/05 - EUR (Bearish)
COT 05/05 - GBP (Bullish)
COT 05/05 - JPY (Bullish)
COT 05/05 - NZD (Bullish)

I'm still short on AUDUSD and EURUSD. The better than expected NFP and unemployment rates last Friday caused a extremely short-lived rally for the dollar, pushing AUDUSD and EURUSD down to my delight. However, USD pared its gains on Monday, even on bettter than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index. The USD weakness is cost me some of my profits last week, unfortunately.

AUD will have a series of news coming out later today, namely: Trade Balance, Monetary Policy Statements and Cash Rate. This will probably impact the movement of AUD and I'm really hoping for AUDUSD to continue its bearishness especially since it is now testing its 0.9740 high.

Benanke will be speaking later as well, and any further hints of pausing the rate cuts could cause the Dollar to rise further.

Good luck for your trading!

Commitments of Traders (COT) - 28 Apr 08

The COT for 28 April 08 is out, click on the following links for the currency that you are interested in:
COT 04/28 - EUR (Bearish)
COT 04/28 - GBP (Bullish)
COT 04/28 - CHF (Neutral)
COT 04/28 - JPY (Bullish)
COT 04/28 - CAD (Neutral)
COT 04/28 - AUD (Bearish)
COT 04/28 - NZD (Bullish, but be cautious)

Personally, I'm still short on EURUSD which is a on decline after a diagonal triangle, and short on AUDUSD which appears to be in a diagonal triangle at this point. But as FOMC announcement is coming this Wednesday, caution is warranted. The expected rate cuts may spur further weakness that may cause EURUSD and AUDUSD to rally in the short term.

That's all for now, and I apologise that I hadn't been putting up my charts. I really hadn't enough time to put everything down nicely. Take care and good luck trading!

Commitments of Traders (COT) - Apr 08

The COT for Mar 08 is out, click on the following links for the currency that you are interested in:
COT 04/21 - CAD (Bullish)
COT 04/21 - EUR (Bearish)
COT 04/21 - GBP (Bullish)
COT 04/21 - CHF (Neutral)
COT 04/21 - JPY (Bearish)
COT 04/21 - AUD (Bullish but Forming Top)
COT 04/21 - NZD (Bullish)

I hadn't had the time to really look at the charts in detail, but generally I think there are many diagonals that are currently forming. This is also pretty much inline with what DailyFX is saying.

Some of my open trades right now are:
a) Short AUDUSD
I hope that the above COT is correct and that AUDUSD is forming a top. Based on my charts, I see a diagonal (see weekly or daily chart) forming with negative divergence (on both weekly and daily charts!).

b) Short EURGBP
This is somewhat of a riskier trade because fundamentally, GBP is expected to cut rates and EUR seems to be rather hawkish - basically, fundamentals appear to favour upside for EURGBP I think. But again, based on the charts, and the above COTs - Bullish GBPUSD and Bearish EURUSD, I'm somewhat more comforted for this trade.

c) Short EURUSD
Yes, I'm bearish on the EURUSD too because I think a diagonal is forming (and should be completing soon). You'll also see some negative divergence on the daily and 4-hourly charts.

That's all for now and good luck for your trading!

Commitments of Traders (COT) - Mar 08

The COT for Mar 08 is out, click on the following links for the currency that you are interested in:

COT 3/10 - EUR (Bullish)
COT 3/10 - GBP (Bullish)
COT 3/10 - CHF (Bullish)
COT 3/10 - JYP (Bearish)
COT 3/10 - CAD (Bearish)
COT 3/10 - AUD (Neutral)
COT 3/10 - NZD (Neutral)

Actually, the COT indicator is getting me somewhat jittery because I'm currently bullish on USDCHF and bearish on GBPUSD. However, this could be due to a temporary dollar strength that some people are looking for right now.

USDCHF has made a significant move downwards (counted 5 waves down), and I think a short-term low at 1.0133 is in place. And I'm looking for a short-term corrective rally.

Conversely, GBPUSD had made a significant move upwards (counted 5 waves up), and short-term high at 2.0220 could be in place. Thus I'm looking for a short-term correction downwards and shorting around 2.0100.

As you can see, indicators can give different perspective and you need to determine which you prefer. Of course, it will be so much better if everything is aligned....

Well, bye for now and good luck with your trading!

Commitments of Traders (COT)

I was talking about Commitments of Traders (COT) in an earlier post. I've recently found a site that actually provides some free COT charts. Nothing too fancy, but I think you may find it quite a useful reference. You will need to register with them to get the login details though, but considering that its free, it might be useful to check out.

Here's the link : Commitment of Traders