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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

EURUSD Forecast (19 Jun 2012)

I am looking for a shorting opportunity for the EURUSD, and this may just be it.

15min Chart 

image

Prices have made a nice retracement of 61.8%.  It is around the 1.618 extension of the first rally up.  Price is around the S&R level due to the price gap. 

So we can place a trade here, and there are a few places you can place the stop:

a) Put a stop above the wave  ii high – about 1.2725.
b) If you want to be more conservative, you can place the stop just above the wave i low – 1.2672. 
c) A possible alternate wave count is that wave ii was in fact the wave 2 which unfolded as an expanded flat.  Then you would place the stop just above wave 1 – 1.2704.

Alternatively, you can wait for price to confirm, i.e. make a series of lower lows, before you enter.  Of course, that means you get in short at a level price level.

Fingers crossed… (I’m crossing my fingers quite abit lately, aren’t I?)