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Friday, June 1, 2012

The early bird gets the worm, but….

It’s the second mouse that gets the cheese!

mousetrap

There are times my trading coach tells me that I’m getting into trades too late.  Contrary to that, I think I’m often getting into my trades too early!  I feel like the first mouse who gets trapped, only to see the second mouse happily waltz by and take the cheese!

What does that mean?

Spotting turns using Elliott Waves can be tricky sometimes, especially when wave counts aren’t very clear and I mistake a wave v of 3, for a full 5 wave completion and am aiming to trade the turn around.  That’s trying to be the early bird – being a tad too eager.

Sometimes it’s better to be patient, and let price confirm the direction.  While it is not in my forecasts, I was also watching the USDCHF and happily counting the waves.  I’m anticipating a 5 waves completion soon but I entered short too early and price had stopped me out.

USDCHF 15min

USDCHF Early Bird

Look at that beautiful pin bar which just appeared and is beckoning me to take another short trade after having stopped out.  Psychologically, I’m more reserved now after being stopped out, but everything within me tells me to look for that turn around. And I have to ask myself “Is this a revenge trade?” and “Do I have a biased view and am I ignored certain evidences because of that bias?”

There are many times where the price hits my stop loss and promptly reverses in my “favor” and even hits my original take profit level.  It feels like the market is intentionally taunting me. If you have been trading for awhile, I’m sure you have experienced the same thing.

At the end of the day, I think we’ll never really know. The main thing is, if you have a low-risk trading idea - plan your trade and trade your plan.  Losses are part of the game.  Be willing to take losses, and always be willing to re-enter the market if you get another signal. Discipline, and good money management.