I know I’d been saying that prices will go higher in this correction. And as the waves unfolded, I’m becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the earlier count, and am now opting for a different count. This count however, would suggest a rather different prices movement.
Here’s the wave count:
1h Chart
The decline after the gap has been far too strong. An although at the lower timeframe it is challenging to count the 5-wave subdivisions, I’m now going to opt for this count. The entire move up, is in fact a a-b-c move upwards, with a diagonal for the wave c.
Wave A has been completed with that gap up which completed the diagonal. The subsequent strong decline then begins a wave a of B.
If wave b of B is completed (the recent rally), then perhaps the price action that is coming will looking something like this:
A decline to around the 1.2380 level, followed by a rally of a similar magnitude of wave A, leading to around the 1.2770 level.
Alternate Count
The alternate count is that the entire wave A is in fact the wave 4 correction, and the wave a of B that I’m counting is in fact the start of a larger degree decline for wave 5.
Stay alert, as the Greece Elections on 17th Jun, and the upcoming news releases may produce some fairly wild swings.
