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Monday, June 18, 2012

EURJPY Forecast (18 Jun 2012)

Challenging times for wave counting.  Here’s my view on EURJPY

8H Chart

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On the 8h timeframe, it looks like there’s still another wave down that’s waiting to unfold.  The recent rally looks to be a corrective one, and has stagnated at the S&R level of 100.80. Wave count suggest that it can probably still go higher (about 101.50-102.00 region for first target), but the price weakness is a concern and needs to be watched carefully.

1H Chart

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As mentioned at the start of this post…. wave count is challenging.  So I’m looking at the overall picture first.  The rally is nicely bound by channel lines, suggesting that the rally is a corrective one (which it should be for a wave 4).

There are two sets of channel lines where the gradient of the second set appears much gentler. Again, this suggests that price may be losing strength in this rally.  However price-wise, I am expecting prices to go higher as per the 8H chart above. 

Adopting a wait and see approach for now.  Meanwhile, can trade smaller timeframes, and other price patterns like the gap that just occurred over the weekend. (Of course, it’s too late to take the trade now.  Good luck for those who went short earlier! )