Planned Trades (31 Dec 07)

I'm back in the trading scene! Well, I'm supposed to hold back till next year... but well, tomorrow is next year. hahaha.

I stopped for about 2 weeks or so and realised that some of my predictions I made came true! Unfortunately, I wasn't trading that period. Well, there are other opportunities around, so I'll keep my eyes peeled.

The wave counts this time round don't seem that clear to me, either that or I got rusty after my break from trading. But here are the entries I'd planned. If you notice, I had also started to record the risk/reward ratio of each trade under the remarks column. It is important to have a good risk/reward ratio so that your trades yield a positive expectancy.

One last thing, my confidence for the last trade is only for today. :P Will need to reaccess the charts once the prices unfold.

Good luck with your trades people!

Effective Money Management

I had stopped trading for awhile during this period to review my trading strategies. This period is full of holidays, so its a good time to take a break too. One of the key things that I'm going to incorporate into my strategies is a good understanding of money management methods.

Most people are aware that they should only risk 2%-3% of their total capital when trading. I learn that this is called the fixed fractional money management method, and there's another method called the fix ratio money management method. Besides buying the book by Ryan Jones, you may wish to read up on the interview with him to get some insights on the method.

I'll share about the outcome of my trading review, don't think there will be much 'enlightening' stuff, but its a necessary process for me as a trader to reset my foundations for better results.

Planned Trades (9 Dec 07)

I cleared all my previous entries and started on a new slate. Here are my planned entry points for tomorrow. I'm trying out my EWT analysis on USDCHF. I'm anticipating another move upwards for that.

GBPJPY Forecast (8 Dec 07)

Here's a novice attempting a forecast on the GBPJPY for the future..... lets see what my crystal ball says..... GBPJPY will continue its rise to about 231.40 and subsequently drop to target zone of 209.40-210.60.

Ok, I've no idea how accurate this is, and I had made several mistakes in my forecasts. But heck, I'm learning! This will serve as a log of whether I'd made more mistakes or successes in these forcasts. :)

UPDATE [Feb 2008]

I thought it would be nice to have an update on what happened after I made the first forecast on 8 Dec 07. 2 Months later (yes yes... 2 months is quite a long time!) it has hit my price target an is facing some resistance. At this point, I'm not sure if it will reverse or go further up, so I'll stay out of this market for now.

Trades in Review

Well, not exactly reviewing my specific trades, but its been a bad Month for Nov and bad first week for Dec.

Status:
Nov 07 - Loss of $641.75, quite a painful drop.
Week 1, Dec 07 - Loss of $611.25, a more painful drop.

What happened such that I made approximately the same loss in the first week of Dec as the whole month of Nov?!

Firstly, I had been trading a much smaller volume the previous months, so gains are relatively smaller. In addition, I had the luck of making a few successful trades off the news. Some nearly gave me a heart attack, but generally, it went well as a whole. I have now increased my trade size, so each trade will yield me a larger gain or loss.

Secondly, this week had been bad because of the news! I had forgotten to remove my trade entries (TWICE!) for news events. One was because I didn't see the GBP interest rate announcement (due at 5.30pm while I was at work), and the other news was because I was tied up doing some work (yes... office work) and I got so absorbed I missed the news!

What does this tell me?? Well, either set my alarm for news events, or remove all trade entries if I know I'm going to be tied up with work or something. Painful learning experience, but I think I can recover from this.

Get a Life

I saw this segment in one of the ebooks I was reading... and it made alot of sense for me. Its probably one of the more important things about being a trader - Balance!

Since I can't cut and paste from the document... here it is...re-typed. Forgive any typos pls.

-----------------

Do you know why you trade?

Is it the fun and excitement, the sheer nerve-jangling, adrenaline rush that comes from trading the world's financial markets?

Perhaps you enjoy status of being a trader? " Hi - John Doe - Futures Trader - Nice to meet you..."

For some traders, it's an escape. They hate the world around them - their job, their boss, their spouse, their whole life in fact. Trading then becomes a fantasy to slip into at will.

The fact is, trading has to be about one thing.

Making a profit.

If you do it for any other reason, you are probably doomed to failure, because you'll operate from emotion instead of the cold, mechanical thinking that's the hallmark of a good trader.

Look at your own motivations for trading. See if you can discover a hidden agenda. If there's something missing in your life that trading is currently filling, then you need to address that.

Live a balanced life, Don't spend the whole day trading. Meet people. Get out! Start a new business. Find new interests.

Keep your trading desk free from emotional clutter.

Planned Trades (26 Nov 07)

I've closed all my positions from last week, re-evaluated and these are my planned trades for today.

Last week was a volatile week. My account was more or less constant last week with losses ending on Friday. I was basically more laid back last week during my leave, while I did not overtrade, my account actually suffered from lack of monitoring. :P

Laguerre RSI indicator

Here's a recommendation from a fellow FX Trader friend. I hadn't tried it out myself so I don't know how good it is. Writing about it in the blog here also allows me to do some research on it when I have the time.

The Laguerre RSI indicator is not the usual RSI indicator, so you will not typically have it in the normal trading platforms. But the good thing is, you can use it as a custom indicator on the Metatrader platform if you are using it. May be someone could try it out and post some comments on it. :)

Elliot Wave Theory (EWT)

Not going to talk about my trades today, but basically, GBPUSD had a volatile Black Friday and that caused me some losses on some of my trades. And I committed another one of the major traders' sins.... I got lazy I didn't review my trades. Though I quickly made the losses back, those could have been profits.

Now, back to the topic of the post - Elliot Wave Theory. I came across this theory briefly in the book "Technical Analysis Explained" by Martin Pring. It was a very short sub-section on it, and it really didn't get too much attention from me then. I've since become rather interested in EWT and I think it has very good predictive properties.

One thing I learnt about trading tools is this, there are leading indicators and there are lagging indicators. Many lagging indicators are way too slow for trading FX, so mostly, I look for leading indicators. While EWT isn't exactly an indicator, it is a good tool to trade with.

Check out www.elliotwave.com for some free videos on EWT.

Planned Trades (19 Nov 07)

These are my planned trades for the day. And since I can't cut and paste from Excel... I can only paste the image here. :) Now just have to wait and see what happens!

New Trading Blog!

I've decided to add another blog to my arsenal of blogs. Well, I know I hadn't been posting regularly in the other blogs. But given my recent interest in Forex Trading, I think I'll be able to blog quite abit about it.

You'll find rants, complaints, lessons learnt, lessons not learnt, declarations of wins and licking of wounds from losses. :)