EURUSD Forecast (23 Jun 2012)

The recent price movement for EURUSD and AUDUSD looks very similar, indicating that price movements are probably due to the USD.  However, at larger timeframes the two currency pairs are very different.

1h Chart

I’ve not been sure of the EURUSD, and the waves unfolding has been challenging.  So, I’ve decided to put a few wave counts into it.  My preferred wave count is in white, alternate counts are in yellow and red.  These are independent of each other.

In either case, I think there’s further downside in the short term, and I’m looking for shorting opportunities around 1.2610 level which happens to be the 50% retracement level of wave 3, and 1.381 extension of wave a.

Risk of Investing in the Euro | Kathy Lien on Business News Network

EURUSD Forecast (19 Jun 2012)

I am looking for a shorting opportunity for the EURUSD, and this may just be it.

15min Chart 

Prices have made a nice retracement of 61.8%.  It is around the 1.618 extension of the first rally up.  Price is around the S&R level due to the price gap. 

So we can place a trade here, and there are a few places you can place the stop:

a) Put a stop above the wave  ii high – about 1.2725.
b) If you want to be more conservative, you can place the stop just above the wave i low – 1.2672. 
c) A possible alternate wave count is that wave ii was in fact the wave 2 which unfolded as an expanded flat.  Then you would place the stop just above wave 1 – 1.2704.

Alternatively, you can wait for price to confirm, i.e. make a series of lower lows, before you enter.  Of course, that means you get in short at a level price level.

Fingers crossed… (I’m crossing my fingers quite abit lately, aren’t I?)

Euro at Clear Risk but Trading Conditions Difficult | DailyFX (Video)

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist



Here's a nice video by DailyFX on the EUR.  David talks about the Greece Fundamentals with some nice stats from Bloomberg, correlation charts, COT Charts and other interesting stuff.

EURUSD Forecast (18 Jun 2012)

I’ve revised my view on the EURUSD so many times, I’m almost embarrassed. haha! Prices have broken the high of my wave A, but price movement is so overlapping, I’m extremely reluctant to count that as a wave C. So I’m counting that as a wave b rally of an expanded flat. I might be pushing it somewhat… but here’s the chart!

4h Chart

EURUSD Forecast (14 Jun 2012)

I know I’d been saying that prices will go higher in this correction.  And as the waves unfolded, I’m becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the earlier count, and am now opting for a different count.  This count however, would suggest a rather different prices movement.

Here’s the wave count:

1h Chart

The decline after the gap has been far too strong.  An although at the lower timeframe it is challenging to count the 5-wave subdivisions, I’m now going to opt for this count.  The entire move up, is in fact a a-b-c move upwards, with a diagonal for the wave c.

Wave A has been completed with that gap up which completed the diagonal.  The subsequent strong decline then begins a wave a of B.

If wave b of B is completed (the recent rally), then perhaps the price action that is coming will looking something like this:

A decline to around the 1.2380 level, followed by a rally of a similar magnitude of wave A, leading to around the 1.2770 level.

Alternate Count

The alternate count is that the entire wave A is in fact the wave 4 correction, and the wave a of B that I’m counting is in fact the start of a larger degree decline for wave 5.

Stay alert, as the Greece Elections on 17th Jun, and the upcoming news releases may produce some fairly wild swings.

Dollar falls, euro touches $1.26

I just saw this news article from MarketWatch.com - "Dollar Falls, Euro touches $1.26".  It's worth a read if you want to look at some of the fundamentals or mindsets that's pushing the currencies around.

But for anyone that has been following the charts, the price movement is old news. Euro had touched $1.26 last night while I was asleep (we all need our beauty sleep right?) and made a pull-back from it.  The rally doesn't look very strong, but I'm expecting prices to be able to go higher still.  There's a series of major economic news coming out today (source: ForexFactory) that may cause some wide swings:

3:30pm	CHF		Libor Rate			<0.25%	<0.25%
3:30pm	CHF		SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
3:30pm	CHF		SNB Press Conference
8:30pm	USD		Core CPI m/m			0.2%	0.2%
8:30pm	USD		Unemployment Claims			377K	377K

* Note: Timings above are based on Singapore time (GMT+8)

Good luck with your trading!

EURUSD Forecast (12 Jun 2012)

With the nice price movements, I’ve now revised my count somewhat.  I’ve been warned that gaps usually close, (yes I knew that…).  Anyway, here’s the new count on the 1 hour.

1H Chart

I am still counting the gap up as a beginning of the wave C for this retracement.  Although prices are dangerously close to invalidating my wave counts. So if the low of my wave B is taken out, it may be time to review the whole count again.

Alternatively, the whole thing could be unfolding as some sort of diagonal triangle right now.

EURUSD Forecast (11 Jun 2012)

Hope everyone is doing well with your trades.  I’ve been away and had not been able to follow the markets closely for the past 4 days.   And it’s interesting to see how prices have unfolded since my last post on EURUSD.

Prices have retraced nicely, and then spike up strongly.  It has since slowly trailed downwards.  Here’s a 4h Chart:

4h Chart

Let’s drill down.

1h Chart

15min Chart

I’m expecting a 5-wave move for wave C.  So here are my expectations of the markets based on this wave count.

a) This decline will not go below 1.2516 (wave 1 high)
b) The current high of 1.2661 will be taken out before the low of 1.2435
c) Once prices turn, I’ll start looking for possible areas where wave 5 of this correction is ending. Currently, based on a Wave C = Wave A projection, that price level is around 1.2770.

I’ll be looking for the markets to tell me if I’m correct or not.  Meanwhile, stay safe while trading!

EURUSD Forecast (8 Jun 2012)

Here’s a quick 4h Chart.  I think the corrective rally is well in place. Overall trend is still bearish.

4H Chart

Safe Trading!

EURUSD Forecast (5 Jun 2012)

Hi everyone, getting pretty tied up with many things this few weeks so am not able to do much analysis on my charts. Here’s a quick one of the EURUSD

4h Chart

There’s a very sharp rally in the EURUSD as seen in the chart.  I still doubt that the decline is over, but my wave count suggests that a wave 3 decline might be over, so a wave 4 is probably in effect right now.  I shall wait for the wave count to clarify itself. In the meantime, the dotted yellow line is an indication of how I think prices may be moving.

EURUSD Forecast (31 May 2012)

 

1H Chart

Prices for EURUSD like the one for USDJPY has made a nice run down.  I find the waves for EURUSD getting more difficult to count, but I suspect that the wave has not yet completed its 5 waves.

There’s a rounding bottom reversal, and price looks quite strong on the upside.  I’ll be cautious and take partial profits, or exit all together and look for new opportunities.

Good luck with your trading!

EURUSD Forecast (30 May 2012)

Following up on my previous wave count, it does seem like wave .iv has completed, and it’s making its wave .v down.  The only thing is, it seems to me like wave .v is sub-dividing, which means, more bearish potential. 

EURUSD Forecast (28 May 2012)

 

Wave .iv may be complete and wave .v could be in progress.  Watch the price and trade safely!

EURUSD Forecast (24 May 2012)

After my session with Ray and FuzzyLogic, I decided to re-do my wavecounts all the way from the weekly timeframe down to the lower time frame.  It’s something I used to do, but I got lazy…. so here it is.

Weekly

Daily

8 Hourly

Not much additional information from the Daily to the 8 hourly.  So let’s see if wave v of 3 is completed.  Down to the 15min.

15min

Looks like wave 3 has yet to complete.  If wave .iii has completed, expect wave .iv to stagnate or end around 1.2650.  It has some good fibb convergence and S&R levels.

That’s it for my wave counts.  Take care out there!

EURUSD Trade Review (16 May 2012)

If you had been following my EURUSD forecast, I had been very excited about counting the “completion” of my five waves.  Alas, my trade was botched.  Here’s a chart of my wave counts and my entry (Green Line) and stop (Red Line).

Here’s my personal review of the trade:

1. Was I diligent in monitoring the price movement? - Y
2. Did I have alternate wave counts – N
3. Did I follow my trading rules? – Y
4. Did I follow my money management rules for individual trades? – Y
5. Did I follow my guideline on max number of concurrent trades ? – Y (I had EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD running at the same time)

I need to be more diligent in having alternate wave counts.  Where else can I improve?

1. Always go back to higher timeframe to look at overall wave movement.  Especially when I dig down into so many degrees / levels.
2. One thing I’ve been thinking of including in my trading plan that I have not.  Similar to what Robert Balan proposes – If the stop is hit, enter a trade in the reverse direction (not more than the size of the initial trade).
   
   In his words - “The purpose of the net short position is to try to recover all or enough of the losses from the long trade so as to prevent the capital from being impaired.  A bigger stake on the downside is unjustified at this point. “
   I’m not so comfortable with entering into a trade automatically in the opposite direction as this point, but will look at how this will limit the loss incurred from the trade.

Alright, that pretty much sums up my trades.  It’s back to the drawing board, I’ll post my next forecast when it’s ready!

EURUSD Forecast Update v2 (15 May 2012)

There we go! I’m counting my wave 5 from hell completed as the price reversed nicely and looks fairly impulsive. Still, keep your stops tight, and watch the prices closely.

Good luck with your trading!

EURUSD Forecast Update (15 May 2012)

Prices have entered my trading zone below 1.2870, and the strength of the move down is pretty strong! I’ve decided to look at a smaller time-frame - 5mins! (it’s a bad idea at times, I know!)
Here’s my wave 5 from hell……

I believe wave 5 is expanding so many times, it’s making my head spin! in fact, I don’t even think it’s done yet. Yes, there’s ANOTHER leg down perhaps before it will finish its wave… boy I certainly hope so!

EURUSD Forecast (12 May 2012)

Hi Folks, it’s been a long while since I put up any forecast.  Here’s a quick and dirty on my thoughts on the EURUSD.

On the 8h Chart, I’m counting a Wave C of Y of (B).  Prices have returned to below 38.2% of its upward move, and Wave (B) looks like a complex correction.  Prices are overlapping enough for me to believe that it is a corrective move, and strength of downward movements appear rather strong, so I will be cautious in entering long.  But I do think that prices might be stalling soon.  Here’s why:

Around 1.2900 region we have:
(a) Wave Y = Wave W
(b) Wave c = Wave a
(c) Round Figure of 1.2900

Let’s look at my wave C at a lower timeframe.

It seems that momentum has been slowing down and is getting more difficult to count which is fairly characteristic of wave 4. I think it will move up a little before breaking 1.2900.  I would look for reversals around 1.2864-1.2875.

It is possible for prices to move up from here since the higher timeframe suggests that 1.2900 is a confluence of levels, but I think it will move lower before the move down is complete.

Here you go, be cautious with your trading, and remember, capital preservation is key!

EURUSD Forecast (2 Jan 2012)

Happy New Year everyone!! I hadn’t done any forecast for a long time, and that’s because I’d been hard at work at brushing up my trading, analyzing my trades, etc.  I’d stopped trading in mid-dec 2011, and am starting to resume.

Here’s a quick and dirty forecast based on what I see for EURUSD.

Based on the daily chart:

1. Price has retraced 61.8% of its price movement.
2. Price is currently at a previous low, a support level (see red line).
3. Price is showing divergence (see green line)

I’m counting this as a complex correction. and for my final corrective wave down, I have wave c = wave a.

These series tells me that EURUSD’s momentum seems to be slowing, and I’m actually looking for some upside.  I’ll be looking for opportunities to go long from here.

Ok, and on the 4h, the recent wave down looks anything but pretty.  I must say it’s hard to count 5 waves for a wave C, and the price appears to be bounded by parallel lines.   But we can see some divergence happening right now as well.

The 15 min chart shows some divergence, and then a sharp rejection of prices.  I think that trade volume is still rather low right now, and prices look erratic.  My sense is that prices will probably head downwards abit more before I have my more sustained upward rally.

Well, that’s my 2 cents worth. Do your own due diligence to your own personal satisfaction before trading. My position of the market may also change based on how the price patterns unfold.  Afterall, its more important to be profitable than right in trading!

Good luck!