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Rants
The GBPJPY Forecast went quite well, so I'm attempting another forecast now. I really hadn't had the time to follow the markets the past two weeks due to work commitments. Because of that, I'd missed quite a few targets.... sad... but its all part of work life balance.
Wave Analysis
Ok, now to my USDCHF Forecast. I think that the larger trend is downwards from the high of 1.1596. However, despite the negative USD sentiments, I think USDCHF is now in a A-B-C expanded flat correction, and has completed its wave B. Looking at the MACD, we can also see that some divergence has set in. This might indicate a larger move upwards, which constitutes the wave C rally.
Possible Entry Zone
Again, based on my analysis, I think the USDCHF is on a C Wave rally. Using a 1.618% extension of my wave A, the price target actually exceeds my wave i slightly. Assuming that the larger trend is still to the downside, I think that one can sell in the range of 1.1120 - 1.1170. (That's a 50 pip range).
Stop Limit
I'll place my stop above 1.1200, i.e. above the start of my wave i. Once the price hits that, it will have invalidated my wave count and we'll have to look at it all over again. But for now, if we do enter at 1.1120-1.1170 and place the stop at around 1.1200. That's a risk of about 30-80 pips depending on where you enter the market.
Price Objective
I'm really not very good at setting price objectives, but I'll give it a shot anyway. If this really is a wave C rally, we can potentially expect it to drop back to at least its low of 1.0728. To be (very) conservative, my first price objective would be about 0.618% of the entire drop, i.e. around 1.0955. That's about 165-215 pips profit. The risk/reward ratio is about 80:165 to 30:215 (i.e. 2.06 to 7.17).
And my second price objective would be around the low of wave-B which gives about 390-440 pips profit.
Well, that's all for now! Good luck with your trading!
Disclaimer:
The opinions expressed here is solely mine and should not be regarded as trading advice. Trading Forex, a leveraged tool, carries significant amounts of risk. Any trader who heeds the analysis here, trades at his/her own risks.
