EURUSD Forecast (5 Jun 2012)

Hi everyone, getting pretty tied up with many things this few weeks so am not able to do much analysis on my charts. Here’s a quick one of the EURUSD

4h Chart

There’s a very sharp rally in the EURUSD as seen in the chart.  I still doubt that the decline is over, but my wave count suggests that a wave 3 decline might be over, so a wave 4 is probably in effect right now.  I shall wait for the wave count to clarify itself. In the meantime, the dotted yellow line is an indication of how I think prices may be moving.

Connect with other traders @ My Trading Room

Some of you may already be aware that I’ve start a two rounds of “My Trading Room” web conferencing – a place to share and discuss.  You can see a unedited video recording of our second session here, where we had a free-for-all discussion.

Objectives of My Trading Room

The objective is to provide a place for people to

1. Share their ideas and trades.
2. Learn from others
3. Discuss and form a community

I’m still looking for people to share their trading ideas for the next session. The response is fairly slow as the idea is still quite new, so if anyone would like to share their experience, trading ideas, charts etc, please let me know.

Upcoming Session on 5 Jun 2012, 8pm

For the next session on 5 Jun 2012, 8pm (GMT+8), I’ll be doing a short intro to Elliott Wave (20mins sharing, 10min QnA), and the rest of the topic will be posted on the site once I have more people who are willing to share. We can also share our charts and our views of the FX Market.

Please click here to register.

The early bird gets the worm, but….

It’s the second mouse that gets the cheese!

There are times my trading coach tells me that I’m getting into trades too late.  Contrary to that, I think I’m often getting into my trades too early!  I feel like the first mouse who gets trapped, only to see the second mouse happily waltz by and take the cheese!

What does that mean?

Spotting turns using Elliott Waves can be tricky sometimes, especially when wave counts aren’t very clear and I mistake a wave v of 3, for a full 5 wave completion and am aiming to trade the turn around.  That’s trying to be the early bird – being a tad too eager.

Sometimes it’s better to be patient, and let price confirm the direction.  While it is not in my forecasts, I was also watching the USDCHF and happily counting the waves.  I’m anticipating a 5 waves completion soon but I entered short too early and price had stopped me out.

USDCHF 15min

Look at that beautiful pin bar which just appeared and is beckoning me to take another short trade after having stopped out.  Psychologically, I’m more reserved now after being stopped out, but everything within me tells me to look for that turn around. And I have to ask myself “Is this a revenge trade?” and “Do I have a biased view and am I ignored certain evidences because of that bias?”

There are many times where the price hits my stop loss and promptly reverses in my “favor” and even hits my original take profit level.  It feels like the market is intentionally taunting me. If you have been trading for awhile, I’m sure you have experienced the same thing.

At the end of the day, I think we’ll never really know. The main thing is, if you have a low-risk trading idea - plan your trade and trade your plan.  Losses are part of the game.  Be willing to take losses, and always be willing to re-enter the market if you get another signal. Discipline, and good money management.

EURUSD Forecast (31 May 2012)

 

1H Chart

Prices for EURUSD like the one for USDJPY has made a nice run down.  I find the waves for EURUSD getting more difficult to count, but I suspect that the wave has not yet completed its 5 waves.

There’s a rounding bottom reversal, and price looks quite strong on the upside.  I’ll be cautious and take partial profits, or exit all together and look for new opportunities.

Good luck with your trading!

USDJPY Forecast (31 May 2012)

I hope you had been happily riding the wave down after the past two entries on the USDJPY.

Price has made considerable move downwards, and I can count 5 waves of some degree completed.  This may be a good area to lock in some profits and let the prices ride.  If it it extends, that puts extra cash into the account.  But it is prudent to expect some correction after the 5 waves down.

Hourly Chart

Based on the post-triangle thrust measurement (see the vertical white line on the chart), price still have a ways to go.  The 5 waves down may below to an extended wave 3, which means there’s a possible correction for a wave 4, and then for prices to move back down to complete wave 5. Either way, it is good to preserve capital over being greedy for gains.

Trading the EURCHF Floor

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) had set a price floor for EURCHF at 1.2000, and price is dangerously close at 1.2010 right now. Actually, it has been hovering at that price for a good many months!  Take a look at the chart here:

Each vertical section represents 1 month, so we can see that prices have been stagnating for many months now.  Now, EURCHF is not a currency pair that I usually trade, nor am I a fundamentals trader, so I didn’t even know about the price floor until a friend told me.

And since I know now, I thought you should know too!

If you are keen to take a position, you might want to consider going long (it’s a price floor after all). But remember, there are no guarantees in trading, so remember your risk management and position sizing too.

Here’s an April 2012 special report by DailyFX which I found:
Euro/Swiss Franc Nears 1.20, Swiss National Bank Hovers-Trade Setups?

EURUSD Forecast (30 May 2012)

Following up on my previous wave count, it does seem like wave .iv has completed, and it’s making its wave .v down.  The only thing is, it seems to me like wave .v is sub-dividing, which means, more bearish potential.