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Saturday, May 26, 2012

USDCHF Forecast (26 May 2012)

Hi folks, it’s the weekend again! Hope everyone has something enjoyable planned out. For me, it’s time to look at the charts again and see what things might possibly go. I find the markets difficult to read, and the Euro crisis may be throwing the waves into greater strength or weaknesses across all currencies.

Let’s take a look at the USDCHF.

Daily Chart

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Each vertical section in the chart is 1 month, so we get to see the monthly movement for USDCHF.  My preferred wave count is that we are in the middle of a complex correction, with limited upside before it makes a wave C downwards to complete it’s correction.  I’m looking at around 0.8600 where my wave 4 is for that correction.

If that’s correct, it should be making its way upwards to complete its wave (2) or (B).

The alternative wave count is that wave A is in fact the full retracement, and price is on its merry way up to far far away land from here. But the movement after preferred count wave A seems more corrective than impulsive. So that will be my alternate count.

 

8H Chart

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* Each vertical segment represents 1 week in this 8h chart.

Counting up from preferred wave count A.  I’m not sure if the move up is completed.  My inclination is in fact, that wave 3 had extended, and we are merely completing wave v of 3.

So generally, looking to go long in the short term, until I see strong signs of reversal, which I will then be inclined to look for short trades in favor of a Wave C downwards.

Well, that’s my opinion of USDCHF right now.  Remember, personal due diligence, and good money management!


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