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Wednesday, May 23, 2012

AUDUSD Forecast (23 May 2012)

I had the opportunity to meet up with RayG and FuzzyLogic from the forums in “My Trading Room”.  Thanks for joining in!

Both of them had a really great way of trading, and I’m thinking of making FuzzyLogic my mentor in price action trading. Haha!

During the session, I had an extensive session with RayG on wavecounts on the AUDUSD on a weekly timeframe.  There was some different in opinion, but RayG’s inputs helped me solidify my thinking and pushed me to think of alternative wave counts!  Thanks for getting rid of my laziness!

Forecast (Weekly Timeframe)

Here’s the forecast:

image

Preferred Count

’m counting a complex correction for wave B on the way right now.  If wave Y unfolds and goes beyond 1.10930, that would make my entire ABC structure an expanded flat, and bring the C wave all the way down to around 0.84967 which is

  1. within the 50%-61.8% retracement, and
  2. also within the price zone of the 4th wave of the one lesser degree.

If my preferred count is correct, we would have completed (or is completing) wave b of Y and would be facing a turn around soon. I’ll be looking for fractal breakouts in the lower time frame to enter the market.

Alternate Count

For the alternate count. In seat of a complex correction.  I’m counting my wave W as a completed Wave B, that makes us currently in a Wave C decline which is yet to complete.  What keeps me away from this count is that the move recent move down looks a lot more alike a zig-zig than a impulse wave downwards.

So time will tell, and I don’t typically trade on the weekly and daily timeframe. But it gives a very good overview of the general direction for trading my lower timeframe.