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Saturday, September 27, 2008

AUDUSD Forecast (27 Sep 08) - Correction

My friend told me that his wavecount was different from mine.... so I went back a took a second look at how I did mine. And I realised.... my wavecount was wrong.

While I said that a Wave b of B was underway, my charts actually labelled wave b of C. What's wrong with that? Well.... Wave C sub-divides into 5 waves, not 3. So if I label a-b-c, I'd be wrong. Unless of course, Wave C is a diagonal and subdivides into 3-3-3-3-3. That's one possibility, but its too early to tell.

Another possibility is that, instead of a A-B-C. What I have is a W-X-Y. Tada!! Each in itself can be a contained 3-waves. And if that's true, then we can look for alternation between Waves X and Y.

Overall, I must say that this chart isn't very easy to label for me. Haha... and here's my revised chart with the W-X-Y count.



There's a reason why I'm still counting it as a corrective move. Overall, wave structure takes precedent. And the waves I've labelled W-X-Y all look corrective to me.

So in summary, I still think that at the 4h chart its either a
A) A-B-C Expanded Flat Correction with C wave as a Diagonal.
B) W-X-Y Correction (that still looks like an expanded flat?? haha)

I thought we'll take a look at other people's count as well. I've taken this from DailyFX, and its a chart by Jamie Saettele.



If I look at the significant low, I agree with her that the move up looks corrective and warrants an a-b-c count. The only thing that I disagree with is the labelling of wave v. Which doesn't look implusive nor look like a diagonal to me. Since interpretation of the charts are subjective, I suggest you pull up your own charts and make-up your own opinion. Her chart could very well be the correct one.

Looking at Fundamentals next week.... Markets could well be consolidating while waiting for non-farm payroll on Friday. Before that, Aussie has quite a number of news events too. It'll be a busy week... keep a close watch if you can!

Alright, that's it for now. Pretty long post compared to yesterday's. I hope I can find another chart with a clearer wave count.