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Thursday, December 22, 2011

Trade Statement Analysis (22 Dec 2011)

 

I’ve closed my trades for the year and run an analysis on all my trades for this year. I plan to do this about every 3 months to make sure I review my trading constantly.  For now, I’m looking to see if there are ways to prevent to fairly obvious dips in my account.

 

How to Identify and Use Support and Resistance Levels

By Elliott Wave International

Since 1999, Elliott Wave International senior analyst and trading instructor Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader's Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. While commodity markets are known as some of the toughest trading environments around, these actionable lessons from a skilled veteran can help you trade commodities, or any market for that matter, with more confidence.

Enjoy this excerpt from Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI resource, the 32-page Commodity Trader's Classroom.


Congestion
"Congestion" is my term for sideways price movement or range trading. And the Elliott wave pattern that best fits this description is a triangle. Those of you who have held a position during these periods know that it's not fun. But the upside is that congestion often provides support or resistance for future price movements regardless of when it occurs. In May Coffee (Figure 6-1), notice how the brief period of congestion that occurred in early November 2003 acted as support for the December pullback. This happened again when the January selloff fell into listless trading for the rest of the month.

The weekly chart of Sugar (Figure 6-2) shows how these periods can also act as resistance.

And if you think about it, the tendency of congestion phases to act as support or resistance is right in line with the Elliott wave guideline on fourth wave retracements: support for a fourth wave pullback is the previous fourth wave extreme of one lesser degree.

Highs, Lows and Gaps
Other areas to watch for price reversals are previous highs and lows and also gaps. You can see on the chart of May Corn (Figure 6-3), for instance, that the September 2003 high was a significant hurdle for prices to overcome. For three months, each attempt to break through this level failed to produce a sizable decline. Also notice the small gap that occurred in early October. The December selloff closed this gap, and in doing so, introduced the subsequent rally. I have mentioned before how gaps often attract prices like magnets at first. Then they repel them -- literally. Prices fill the gap and flee the scene, you could say.

The April chart of Lean Hogs (Figure 6-4) gives us two examples of the same setup: The February advance failed at the previous high made in November 2003, and then fell back to close the late January gap. Prices failed at a previous high again in March and then closed the gap that occurred in February.

The last chart for Orange Juice (Figure 6-5) offers one example of how previous lows can provide resistance. Each bounce within the last ten months in OJ has met resistance at or near a previous low.


Learn more trading techniques in Jeffrey's 32-page collection of practical trading lessons -- absolutely free!

Here's what else you'll learn:

  • How to Make Yourself a Better Trader
  • How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
  • When to Place a Trade
  • How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
  • How to Integrate Technical Analysis into an Elliott Wave Forecast

Download your copy of Commodity Trader's Classroom now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How to Identify and Use Support and Resistance Levels. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free

Often, basics is all you need to know.
By Elliott Wave International

Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts -- and you've laid a good foundation for proper application of... well, anything, really. That's what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter's classic "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior." Here's an excerpt:


Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. ...the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.

These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one's present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.

As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.

The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market... These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.

1) First waves -- ...about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other half of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.


Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free!

Here's what you'll learn:

  • What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
  • Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
  • How to estimate the length of waves
  • How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
  • Practical application tips for the method
  • And More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Happy Holidays! Take a Trading Break!

As the holiday approaches, it is time for me to take a short break, review my year and set goals for the next one.  And I’m not just talking about setting financial or trading goals for the next year.  If you are trading, you probably already have a trading goal but likely you would have missed out goals in other areas of your life: Family, Social, Personal Improvement, Education (other than trading related), health and fitness, etc.

It’s important to have some balance in our lives, and to achieve that, it is important to plan for it!

I’ve often heard of people saying that the best time to take a break from trading is in December. Personally, it’s because of the festive season and for the reasons I mentioned above.  I like what Jeff Quinto wrote in this article : Trading Smarter, Not Harder – Making Your Own Holiday Trading Schedule

Here is how to trade smarter, not harder, this Holiday season. The first 2½-3 weeks of December can be excellent for trading. Every year traders tell me they were surprised at how good their trading was in the first part of December. The markets are liquid and volatile for the first 2½-3 weeks of December and, then, on the Friday a week before Christmas (December 17th this year), this exciting market comes to a screeching halt and remains quiet for the last two weeks of the year.

Therefore, resolve to stop trading for the year on Friday, December 17th and concentrate your attention on having the Merriest of Christmases and the Happiest of New Years.

As for January, traders come back from the holidays on January 3rd ready to start what they hope will be their best year ever. Instead of the predicted great start to the New Year, they very often get “cooked” during the first few trading days of the New Year. This typical slow start for the new year is due to the fact that many “other time-frame traders” take several days to several weeks to restart their trading and re-establish the positions they closed out in December to secure their year-end bonuses.

My advice is to avoid the first full week of the year, altogether. This year, go someplace warm and extend your holiday to January 10th. By doing so, you will have avoided a potentially disappointing start to the year and you will arrive on January 10th prepared to confidently face 2011 fully rested and nicely tanned – ready to begin your best trading year, ever.

I’m taking his advice and wrapping up my trading activities for the year.  I will analyze my trade for this year (as how I described in my earlier post : Trade Statement Analysis (Fun with Monte Carlo), and share the results with everyone here.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

European Union Agreement: Good or Bad?

By Elliott Wave International

Did European Union leaders make the sovereign debt crisis "go away" last week?

Not even close. What they did agree on is tougher budget rules:

"...17 countries of the euro zone...agreed to run only minimal budget deficits in the future and allowed the European Court of Justice the right to strike down national laws that don't enforce such discipline properly..."
Wall Street Journal, (12/9)

Will the EU agreement prove bullish or bearish for world stock markets, including the Dow Industrials?

Let's put it this way: The evidence suggests that government intervention in the economy does not alter the dominant trend of financial markets.

For example: Look at the DJIA chart and try to identify when the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other financial institutions.


"[The chart below] shows that in fact these actions took place in the early portion of the biggest stock market decline in 76 years. These actions did not push stock prices back up. The market finally bottomed months later, at a time when nothing along these lines happened.

"It is no good to claim that these actions had results eventually. By that reasoning, any future turn in the stock market would prove the contention."
Elliott Wave Theorist, March 2010


If anything, the face value of this chart argues that economic government intervention makes stocks go down.
There is simply no "cause and effect" relationship between government actions and stock market trends.

The stock market's price pattern is governed by the Wave Principle:

"Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life.

"....The market's progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement."
Elliott Wave Principle, (p. 21)

If you found this insight into stock market behavior eye-opening, read the2011 Independent Investor eBook, an educational, powerful and FREE 50-page eBook to help you think independently about what really moves the markets.
Thousands of investors have downloaded the Independent Investor eBook, and it has changed the way they think forever. Now YOU can get this important eBook, packed with insightful analysis from 2010 and 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist and Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, free.
Download your free eBook now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline European Union Agreement: Good or Bad for the Dow Industrials?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

What Is Backing Your Deposits in the Bank?

By Elliott Wave International

Is the bank really the safest place to keep your money? Robert Prechter joins the Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell to discuss what backs bank deposits and how you can keep your hard-earned money safe.

We invite you to watch the interview below. Then read Robert Prechter's free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks.


What is the best course of action to safeguard your money?

Read our free 10-page report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks, to learn:

  • The 5 major conditions at many banks that pose a danger to your money.
  • The top two safest banks in your state.
  • Bob Prechter's recommendations for finding a safe bank.
  • And more!

Download your free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks, now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Is Backing Your Deposits in the Bank?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Friday, December 9, 2011

The Light Bulb Moment for the Eurozone

EWI's free EU debt report sheds some light on what's in store
December 8, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That's a joke in search of an answer, but EWI's European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the "light bulb moment" was coming -- that's the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.

This chart shows how markets in Greece, Ireland and Portugal have behaved over the past five years, including the bailouts. Whitmer says that the turmoil in Greece is due mostly to both social mood and Greek markets having plummeted for more than a year and a half, while the larger EU stock markets have levitated. Once they turn down, he forecasts that what you saw in Greece will be replayed in the eurozone.

To help his subscribers see the light and get the full picture, he compared EU member nations under financial scrutiny to those that are usually viewed as being safe -- and showed that they weren't as safe as most people thought.

Specifically, Whitmer warned that the debt per person in Greece looked eerily similar to the debt per person in highly regarded countries, such as Germany and France -- and even to non-eurozone countries, such as the United Kingdom.

In 2010, Britain proposed a five-year, 25% budget reduction that affects nearly every area of the government. While it sounds like a drastic measure, it has played out differently during the past year. According to member of European Parliament Daniel Hannan, statistics show that not only is government spending and borrowing significantly higher than this time last year, but taxes, too, are way up. Whitmer notes that the budget cuts rely heavily on the future and lack near-term bite.

Why has the worst of Europe's violence taken place on the streets of Athens rather than London? Athenians did not suddenly grow more violent in 2011. What has changed since 2007 is their stock market. Whitmer's words of advice: "...should your country's stock market begin to look like Greece's, watch out. Trouble will be on the way."

*****

European Financial Forecast Editor Brian Whitmer has covered Europe's debt crisis since March 2010 -- and his forecasts kept subscribers ahead of the downward spiral every step of the way. Read more of his analysis in our free report, "The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments."

View your free report.


Free Report
The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments
Continue reading more articles like this one by Brian Whitmer in our European Debt Crisis report. This free report offers commentary from February 2010 through November 2011 that will help you to better understand what could be in store in the coming months and years.

Download your free report now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Light Bulb Moment for the Eurozone. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

America's Biggest Banks: How Safe Are They?

"The Coming Worldwide Bank run"
December 6, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Lost in the clamor over the central banks' "let there be liquidity" pronouncement, Standard & Poor's just downgraded fifteen major U.S. and European banks.

The downgrade doesn't mean Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays, UBS, Wells Fargo and others will close shop tomorrow. But the long-term credit downgrade does raise questions about their stability.

After all, the 2007-2009 financial crisis has supposedly passed. But during the two-year "recovery," did most big banks really return to sound fiscal health? Well, Standard & Poor's downgrade speaks for itself.

One reason for the downgrades was Standard & Poor's own revision to its rating system. Nonetheless, CNBC reported (11/29), "The outcome of the re-rating of the biggest banks was worse than S&P has forecast for all banks."

And apparently, the big banks were in worse shape in 2008 than most people realized. Thanks to the Freedom of Information Act, Bloomberg just revealed that banks got more bailout money from the Federal Reserve than was previously made public:

"The Fed didn't tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn't mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy."
-- Bloomberg, November 28

And in light of the downgrades, what does this revelation say about assurances of financial stability that come from the banks today?

Please consider this insightful excerpt from the September Elliott Wave Theorist:

"The Coming Worldwide Bank run"
"In the late 1990s and mid 2000s, the loan-to-deposit ratio for U.S. banks was nearly 1.00, meaning that almost all deposits were lent out. That shortfall alone was a serious problem, because if even 5% of depositors had decided to withdraw their money, banks would have been unable to pay. Some of the banks' loans were quickly callable, but by 2006, the credit-fueled real estate boom had claimed a large percentage of outstanding loans, both inside and outside the banking system. These loans are not quickly callable. The problem was serious in 2002 and enormous in 2006. Now it has become acute, because many loans are becoming fossilized, as the market for mortgage investing has dried up while foreclosures on the 'collateral' have been slowed by court actions and politics.
"The specter of a banking panic has become far darker since the collateral for bank deposits -- land and buildings -- has fallen globally in value at the steepest rate since the Great Depression. One day this shortfall in collateral value will impress itself on people's minds, and there will be an unprecedented run on banks around the globe.... Yes, I know about the FDIC, but I don't believe it will be able to fulfill its promises when most banks go bust."

Notice the phrase in the last sentence of the quote, "most banks" This obviously implies that some banks are safer than others.

What is the best course of action to safeguard your money? Read our Free 10-page Report titled "Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks" to learn:

  • The top two safest banks in your state.
  • The 5 major conditions at many banks that pose a danger to your money.
  • Robert Prechter's recommendations for finding a safe bank.
  • And more!

Download your free report now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline America's Biggest Banks: How Safe Are They?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Currency Trader Magazine (Dec 2011)

 

Click Here to Download

The December issue of the currency trader magazine is out!  Click here to get it if you hadn’t already.

€CONOMIA - The Monetary Policy Game (Now available on iPad/iPhone)

The European Central Bank has launched an iPad and iPhone game that allows the public to take control of a monetary union and see how they would cope
when faced with an economic crisis. The bank, now battling to save the euro, produced the game in which players set interest rates to keep inflation low
and growth steady. – The Daily Telegraph

€CONOMIA - The monetary policy game

Ever wondered what monetary policy is? Or how the key interest rate affects inflation? Play €CONOMIA and find out how it works.
Your goal: Keep inflation low and stable at just under 2%. Your tool: the key interest rate.

I came across this interesting game in the papers and thought it would be rather interesting.  One can learn a little more about monetary policies and its impact on the economy.  Otherwise, it might just be plain fun to see what happens, and best of all… its a FREE app.

Click here for more information on €CONOMIA.

Single- and Multi-Bar Price Analysis: Could It Help You Forecast the Markets?

EWI's Jeffrey Kennedy shows you what a simple price bar can tell you about a market
December 5, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has spent over 15 years developing techniques to "read between the lines" on a price chart, and he shares some of his techniques with you in a new FREE eBook: Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns.

You'd be amazed at how a simple price bar can provide you with so much information that can improve your trading success. In this excerpt from his new eBook, Jeffrey explains how to interpret price bars and what that means for the subsequent market moves. Learn how you can download the entire 14-page eBook below.


Here's a picture of two different price bars that we will consider to be daily price bars. What story does the single price bar on the left tell you?

Prices opened that day at the lowest price and closed at the highest price, which means that the buyers, or bulls, are in total control of the market. The bears have no power whatsoever, and, because the market closed so high, odds are that the price will continue up the next day. As I said, one price bar can give you tons of information about a financial market.

Now, look at the price bar on the right. It tells you a similar story in the opposite direction. Once the market opened, it got slammed to the down side. It stayed down hard all day and closed on the lows. A market like this is dominated by the bears, the sellers, and odds favor further decline the following day. It means that the bulls, or the buyers, have no control in this market.

Although these kinds of price bars are fairly rare, they may open your eyes to how much information a single price bar can contain, especially if you know how to interpret it.

These two price bars are more like what you will encounter every day.

The price bar on the left side shows that the bears, or the sellers, opened the market up and pushed it down a little bit. In a sense, they had some control, but not much. Then the buyers, or the bulls, took control of this market so that it closed above the open. This type of price bar shows up in an uptrending market.

Conversely, the price bar on the right often shows up in downtrending markets. It signifies that the bears control the market. You could say that the buyers gave it a feeble attempt early on, but by the close, the sellers had taken over. Closes don't lie, and they are the most important item on the price chart.


Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns

When you look at a price chart, can you quickly spot the dominant trend? What about important reversals, or possible support/resistance levels?

EWI has just released a free 14-page eBook: Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns. Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has spent over 15 years developing techniques to "read between the lines" on a price chart, and he shares some of his techniques with you in this new resource. You'll be amazed at how a simple price chart can provide you so much information that can improve your trading success.

Download your free report now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Single- and Multi-Bar Price Analysis: Could It Help You Forecast the Markets?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Download Your Free Price Bars and Chart Patterns Trading eBook.

 


Sometimes understanding the most basic elements of a chart can improve your trading success. That's why Elliott Wave International (EWI) created a new eBook, Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns, by EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Find out how price bars and chart patterns can improve your trading success.

Download your free 14-page eBook today.


When you look at a price chart, what do you see? A bunch of ticks, some ups and downs, perhaps a pattern? Do you see the trend, support and resistance levels, and who's in charge of the market -- the bulls or the bears?

Learn to spot these critical elements and more in Elliott Wave International's free eBook, Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns.

In this free 14-page eBook, EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy will teach you how to look at your charts and find critical support and resistance levels. Even more importantly, you'll learn what these levels mean to your trading positions and stop levels.

You will learn how to look at the simplest part of the chart -- the price bar -- so that you can determine the next most likely market move.

Jeffrey pulls from over 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the markets, to teach you the very same techniques that helped him become a successful trader.

Learn how to identify trading opportunities using price bars and chart patterns.

Download your free 14-page eBook today.
(Hurry -- offer expires December 19!)

---

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Friday, December 2, 2011

7 Pips a day to build your first million?

 

Recently, I’ve come across this concept of building 7 pips a day to build a million dollars in 3 years. And with the power of compounding, this doesn’t seem all that improbable.  After all, Einstein did declare that the power of compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe.

Here’s the theory of what I’ve come across recently (though I’m sure this idea has been around for a long time!):

  1. You risk 5% of your account as your risk/money management.
  2. Target Monthly Profit – 25% (7 pips a day x 22 trading days = 154 pips a month)
  3. Starting Capital $500

For the first month, 1 pip was equals to $1, so 154 pips was $154 i.e. 30% profit which is already more than the target 25%.   So by projecting 25% monthly, the author provides the following projection:

image

So theoretically, we grow an account from $500 to $1.5m in just 3 years!!  And with just 7pips a day… that actually seems very achievable!

I don’t actually have more information other than what I just wrote. I don’t know what the trading system is, i.e. Entry and Stop loss.  And I will assume that the trade is closed once 7pips are hit – i.e. a daily hunt for 7pips.

Dissecting the Idea

The idea is extremely exciting, and I’ve heard of people who told me it was working well for them (they have their own entries and stop loss strategies). But I’m one for analysing if this is the approach for me.

Psychologically and on first impression, I think that 25% target profit monthly is somewhat of a stretched target for me at this point. And at the same time, I think that 5% risk is a little too high for me because the risk of drawdown from consecutive losses can build up pretty quickly.

At $1 per pip, that’s a mini-lot.  So the author is trading a mini-account with a starting capital of $500.  At a 5% risk level, his risk is in fact only $25 bucks (500 x 5%), i.e. 25 pips.  So with a target of 7 pips, that’s a reward/risk ratio of 7/25.  This means that If the risk is 1R, the reward is 0.28R.  This means he will need to have 78.1% winning trades just to breakeven! 

Next, I tried to calculate what’s the winning percentage that’s required to make 7 pips a day with such a risk-reward ratio.  Any guesses?  The answer is….. *Drum roll*….. 100%!!  Any loss at all will take your average below 7 pips.  So over long term, unless your wins of 7 pips are close to 100%, I don’t think this will work.

Achieving 7 pips seems like an achievable task….. how about getting close to 100% wins? Is that achievable?  Perhaps there’s some guru out there who can, but I’m lead to believe that’s not a probable target for me.

Tweaking the Idea

Don’t worry, I’m not going to just throw cold water on this idea. I’m going to attempt to tweak the idea a little. Let’s assume that instead of targeting just 7 pips, we now target a 1:1 risk-reward ratio. So now our new target is 25 pips per trade, but we still need only on average 7 pips in a day. Now I can calculate a winning percentage that’s more probable – 64%. If you can achieve a winning percentage of at least 64% on average, you would have averaged at least 7pips a day.

So now, I have tweaked the idea from achieving close to 100% wins of 7 pips daily, to about 64% wins of 25 pips daily.  For me, that’s a more probable approach to the idea of building 7pips daily.  So the broader objective is the same, but the perspective is different. Of course you can always keep the 7 pips expectancy, tweak the target of 25pips and look at the required winning percentage accordingly. Here’s a table below:

image 

So here you have my take on the 7 pips a day approach to trading.  This does not cover the trading system / strategy itself, but rather what is the expected performance of the system to achieve the same objective of the 7-pips a day approach.

What do you think?  Well, I hope this provided you with a new or alternative way of thinking about approaches to trading.

That’s all for today, good luck with your trading!

Thursday, December 1, 2011

The European Debt Crisis

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In 1999, 11 European countries surrendered their currencies for the euro and a shared monetary authority. Barely a decade later, the once-celebrated EU and its currency are facing collapse. Elliott Wave International has just published a free report to help you gain a valuable perspective on the European debt crisis and get ahead of what it could mean for your portfolio.

Read Your Free Report: The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments.
---------------------------------------

In 1999, 11 European countries surrendered their currencies for the euro and a shared monetary authority. But as the world applauded, Elliott Wave International (EWI) forecast that those countries had also sealed a shared fate: to eventually collapse together in a liquidity-driven deflationary spiral.

Barely a decade later, the once-celebrated EU and its currency are facing collapse. In November 2011, EWI observed that its “pageant of concession and agreement focuses (now) on rescue and preservation rather than expansion.”

EWI's analysts have been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across the European nations for the past two years. Back in December 2009, EWI analyst Brian Whitmer warned that a set of troubling events across Europe were signaling that the entire continent was on edge.

In April 2011, Whitmer wrote:

Back in February 2010, we stated, "Greece's woes aren't over and neither are its neighbors." Four months later, as nearly every country in Europe said they would avoid a "Greek-like fate," the June 2010 issue added, "The only thing separating these countries from Greece is the fragile confidence that they are, indeed, distinct."

Will the Central Bank coordination bolster confidence enough to turn around the economies of the world? Or is this just another hopeful attempt that will provide nothing more than a short-term fix?

You owe it to yourself and your investments to find out. Remember, even if you believe you're not directly invested in Europe, there's a very good chance that some of the companies in your portfolio are -- possibly even your money market funds.

Gain a valuable perspective on the European debt crisis and get ahead of what is yet to come in this free report from Elliott Wave International.

Read Your Free Report Now: The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments.

----------

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.