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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

EURUSD Forecast (30 Nov 2010)

This is a count that I’m not very sure of, but I’m putting it down for record purposes.  I’ve two counts – one that I did myself, and another where I had a little help, so I’m putting it both down.

EURUSD_30 NOV 10_Weekly

On the weekly chart, I’ve counted A-B-C correction and the larger degree is probable on the upside.

EURUSD_30 NOV 10_Daily

On the daily, you see the C wave following by what looks like a 5-wave up.  Here is where I have two different counts for the ending part. 

One is a expanded flat for a wave 4, and a final wave 5 move up before market drops.

The other is the completion of a wave 5, and we are looking at a much further drop down.

EURUSD_30 NOV 10_8h_1

Here is the first count with the expanded flat on the 8h chart.  The green wave shows that we are around wave 4 and can expect a bounce up for a wave 5. 

EURUSD_30 NOV 10_4h_1

On the 4h chart, we can see that prices are now near the end if I had counted the part move as a expanded flat.  But we have an alternate count that’s keeping me out of the trade.

EURUSD_30 NOV 10_4h_2

For the alternate count, look at the above 4h chart.  We have completed a wave 5 after a triangle on the left side of the chart.  And we are looking at a much further decline for wave 3, and a pull back before a final wave 5 down.

I’m waiting to see how this plays out.