BUT, I've finally done one up quickly for sharing. It is not going to be as detailed as some of my previous posts with multiple charts... this one only has one.
Firstly, would just like to share that.... I'd missed a fantastic rally that I had previously put on my charts but since I had not been actively monitoring.... I had totally missed it! If you are familiar with how I draw my charts, the arrows that I draw always start at the last available candlestick at time of drawing. So if you look at the blue arrow... its a beautiful chart! But what's missed is missed.... no matter what the reason. So here's my next anticipated price movement.
I've counted a five wave down, and a possible expanded flat (ABC*). If prices do rally to 0.8300-0.8400, I think its a good level to short.
* The expanded-flat should perhaps be more accurately labeled W-X-Y, because wave C should be a five-wave structure rather than a three-wave structure.
Since Elliott Wave is fractal in nature, I'm not too anal about the
labeling. But is good to be clear what we are looking at.
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Here are the reasons for shorting:
a) Wave C is 2.618 of Wave A - I'm counting this as an expanded flat correction. Generally, Wave C is 1.618 of Wave A, but we can see that prices have broken through that level, which happens to also coincide with another interesting level (where wave c = wave b)
b) Wave c is 1.618 of wave a - In a flat correction, wave c can be the same length as wave a, or 1.618 of wave a. In this case, I'm counting 1.618 of wave a since it has broken through the wave a = wave c level.
c) 0.8380 is the 0.618 retracement of wave 1 / (A). Now at this point, all I'm counting is five-waves down, but I have no idea if its a wave 1 or a wave (A). In anycase, a 0.618 level is a pretty popular/strong retracement resistance level.
d) 0.8380 is near the termination point of wave iv. Although the guideline for depth of correction is usually applied to wave 4 corrections, sometimes we can also use it for wave 2 corrections if the lesser degree wave iii is subdivided. In this case since wave iii happens to be sub-divided, so it will probably make a pretty good resistance level.
So here are my 4 beautiful reasons for shorting at that level. But here's what you have to be aware of. Based on this count, the stop-loss is going to be above the start of wave 1 / (A), around 0.9850. That's a risk of about 1,550 pips! Make sure you have a large enough account size and can afford to take the trade. Remember, risk management, risk management, risk management!
If you can't afford to take this trade, wait for price confirmation i.e. for prices to start making 5-waves move downwards before entering.
That's all for now! Good luck with your trades!
