EURJPY Forecast (11 Jul 08)

I hadn't been doing much forecasting of late. Partially due to being occupied, and partially because the charts are so messy these days. But I'll try to do one on EURJPY which I think is due for another down leg.



First, lets take a look at the weekly chart. Cut a long story short... I think that EURJPY has completed its wave 3 of (4) and is now completing its wave 4 of (4), which usually ends around the 4th wave of its one lower degree. Also, since I think its a wave 4, then it shouldn't overlap with wave 1 either. Lets enlarge the chart.



If price moves to below Wave 1 which also happens to be the 78.2% retracement, then my wave count become invalid. But that's not the main concern now because price could still move further up or it could being its beautiful descend down to around 150.7. That's quite a large move.

But we need to take a look at the smaller timeframes to see what is going on.



My preferred count is that wave B is now being completed. Here's the 4hr chart.



And finally, the 1 hour chart....



The 1 hour chart is what I really want to get to... haha, because that's what I'm trading right now. In short, I think that the wave c of B is actually a Diagonal Triangle, which would be invalidated once price exceeds 169.52, and the target price is the start of the diagonal at 167.13. So yup, while the weekly time frame since to suggest prices dropping all the way to 150.70, for near term, I'm looking for a target of around 167.13.

Lets see how it turns out. :)