Some Possible Trades

Markets are still extremely choppy, and I'm hard pressed to find impluse waves on the charts. I could be just me... but personally, I think most markets are really in a long looonnnnggg corrective mode.

But since I hadn't put up much charts in the past.... and I'm really been busy. Well, too busy to put up nice charts... but not quite that busy that I didn't trade at all. So for how, since I've had requests for updates on the blog.... I'll put up my uncleaned charts. I must say, I hadn't put that much time into the charts these days... so I won't be putting up a series of different time-frame charts up. So... what are the trades I'm looking at for the week?

Here are some charts, but please note that I'm disposed to change my opinion of the markets at any point of time. :)

Firstly... AUDUSD


Entry : Long at 0.9550
SL : 0.9430 (120 pips)
TP : 0.9900 (350 pips)

And

Entry : Short at 0.9880
SL : 1.0060 (180 pips)
TP : 0.9650 (230 pips)

The charts tell the story.

Next chart, EURUSD with two possible shorting positions:



Entry: Short at 1.5785
SL : 1.6060 (275 pips)
TP : 1.5380 (405 pips)

Entry: Short at 1.5885
SL : 1.6060 (175 pips)
TP : 1.5480 (405 pips)

Take care out there!

EURJPY Forecast (11 Jul 08)

I hadn't been doing much forecasting of late. Partially due to being occupied, and partially because the charts are so messy these days. But I'll try to do one on EURJPY which I think is due for another down leg.



First, lets take a look at the weekly chart. Cut a long story short... I think that EURJPY has completed its wave 3 of (4) and is now completing its wave 4 of (4), which usually ends around the 4th wave of its one lower degree. Also, since I think its a wave 4, then it shouldn't overlap with wave 1 either. Lets enlarge the chart.



If price moves to below Wave 1 which also happens to be the 78.2% retracement, then my wave count become invalid. But that's not the main concern now because price could still move further up or it could being its beautiful descend down to around 150.7. That's quite a large move.

But we need to take a look at the smaller timeframes to see what is going on.



My preferred count is that wave B is now being completed. Here's the 4hr chart.



And finally, the 1 hour chart....



The 1 hour chart is what I really want to get to... haha, because that's what I'm trading right now. In short, I think that the wave c of B is actually a Diagonal Triangle, which would be invalidated once price exceeds 169.52, and the target price is the start of the diagonal at 167.13. So yup, while the weekly time frame since to suggest prices dropping all the way to 150.70, for near term, I'm looking for a target of around 167.13.

Lets see how it turns out. :)

EUR Plunges Dispite Rate Hikes

I'm currently on reservist and did not really monitor the markets. So I just came back from camp and I found that EUR had made a plunge! I thought that surely the ECB had kept rates instead of increasing them, but lo and behold! They did increase rates!

The Eur had been rising for the past few weeks in anticipation of rate hikes, and I believe many traders were expecting Eur to appreciate with the rate hikes as the ECB has expressed concerns over inflation. Other (technical) traders are looking at the charts see weakness (for me in the EURUSD pair) and were looking for shorting opportunities. I shorted the pair and was waiting for it to come down.... it stay up there for a couple of days before finally dropping dispite the rate hikes. Here's what some articles say about it.

Euro Plunges (Source: ForexNews)
The euro posted steep losses following ECB President Trichet’s press conference, falling by over two big figures to 1.5683. The European Central Bank, as expected, hiked rates by 25-basis points to 4.25%. However, the subsequent press conference by Bank President Trichet offered little hint as to whether any additional rate hikes can be anticipated. He said that, “The monetary policy stance following today’s decision will contribute to achieving our objective”, while emphasizing that the Bank has no bias on future decisions. Trichet said that rate increase was necessary adding that the Eurozone is experiencing moderate but ongoing growth. The economic releases from the Eurozone overnight were mixed, with retail sales sharply higher than anticipated while non-manufacturing PMI disappointed consensus estimates. Retail sales reversed from negative prior readings, increasing by 1.2% compared with -0.6% a month earlier and up 0.2% versus -2.9% in the previous year.Traders focused more on the less hawkish comments from Trichet, tempering expectations for additional policy tightening despite recent record high inflation reports. Accordingly, the euro plunged toward the 1.57-handle, with support seen at 1.5675, backed by 1.5640 and 1.56.

Euro Collapses as Trichet Proves to be a Big Disappoint (Source: DailyFX)
Thursday, 03 July 2008 21:50:53 GMT
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

For the first time since 2007, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25bp to 4.25 percent. However despite this move, the Euro dropped more than 200 pips when ECB President Trichet failed to signal to the markets that interest rates would be increased again this year.

Going into the ECB meeting, the Euro rose to a high of 1.5910, indicating that currency traders were clearly banking on hawkish comments. Instead, Trichet played down the prospect of more rate hikes by saying he has “no bias” more than 5 times in the question and answer session with reporters. For Euro bulls, having no bias is just as bad as not having raised interest rates today. Despite strong retail sales, a sharp drop in the German unemployment rate and much stronger than expected producer prices, the ECB was surprisingly neutral. For a staunch inflation fighter, it is quite uncharacteristic to have no bias especially on a day when oil prices hit a new record high. German factory orders are due for release tomorrow. A strong rebound is expected but that may not have much of an impact on the Euro. We expect a bit more weakness before some stabilization in the EUR/USD.