Technical Analysis of the Forex Spot Markets using Elliott Waves, Chart Patterns, Candlesticks and other tools. Disclaimer: None of the comments in this blog shall be construed as professional trading or investment advice.
I’ve closed my trades for the year and run an analysis on all my trades for this year. I plan to do this about every 3 months to make sure I review my trading constantly. For now, I’m looking to see if there are ways to prevent to fairly obvious dips in my account.
Since 1999, Elliott Wave International senior analyst and trading instructor Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader's Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. While commodity markets are known as some of the toughest trading environments around, these actionable lessons from a skilled veteran can help you trade commodities, or any market for that matter, with more confidence.
Enjoy this excerpt from Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI resource, the 32-page Commodity Trader's Classroom.
Congestion
"Congestion" is my term for sideways price movement or range trading. And the Elliott wave pattern that best fits this description is a triangle. Those of you who have held a position during these periods know that it's not fun. But the upside is that congestion often provides support or resistance for future price movements regardless of when it occurs. In May Coffee (Figure 6-1), notice how the brief period of congestion that occurred in early November 2003 acted as support for the December pullback. This happened again when the January selloff fell into listless trading for the rest of the month.
The weekly chart of Sugar (Figure 6-2) shows how these periods can also act as resistance.
And if you think about it, the tendency of congestion phases to act as support or resistance is right in line with the Elliott wave guideline on fourth wave retracements: support for a fourth wave pullback is the previous fourth wave extreme of one lesser degree.
Highs, Lows and Gaps
Other areas to watch for price reversals are previous highs and lows and also gaps. You can see on the chart of May Corn (Figure 6-3), for instance, that the September 2003 high was a significant hurdle for prices to overcome. For three months, each attempt to break through this level failed to produce a sizable decline. Also notice the small gap that occurred in early October. The December selloff closed this gap, and in doing so, introduced the subsequent rally. I have mentioned before how gaps often attract prices like magnets at first. Then they repel them -- literally. Prices fill the gap and flee the scene, you could say.
The April chart of Lean Hogs (Figure 6-4) gives us two examples of the same setup: The February advance failed at the previous high made in November 2003, and then fell back to close the late January gap. Prices failed at a previous high again in March and then closed the gap that occurred in February.
The last chart for Orange Juice (Figure 6-5) offers one example of how previous lows can provide resistance. Each bounce within the last ten months in OJ has met resistance at or near a previous low.
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How to Identify and Use Support and Resistance Levels. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts -- and you've laid a good foundation for proper application of... well, anything, really. That's what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter's classic "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior." Here's an excerpt:
Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. ...the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.
The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.
These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one's present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.
As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.
The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market... These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.
1) First waves -- ...about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other half of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
As the holiday approaches, it is time for me to take a short break, review my year and set goals for the next one. And I’m not just talking about setting financial or trading goals for the next year. If you are trading, you probably already have a trading goal but likely you would have missed out goals in other areas of your life: Family, Social, Personal Improvement, Education (other than trading related), health and fitness, etc.
It’s important to have some balance in our lives, and to achieve that, it is important to plan for it!
I’ve often heard of people saying that the best time to take a break from trading is in December. Personally, it’s because of the festive season and for the reasons I mentioned above. I like what Jeff Quinto wrote in this article : Trading Smarter, Not Harder – Making Your Own Holiday Trading Schedule
Here is how to trade smarter, not harder, this Holiday season. The first 2½-3 weeks of December can be excellent for trading. Every year traders tell me they were surprised at how good their trading was in the first part of December. The markets are liquid and volatile for the first 2½-3 weeks of December and, then, on the Friday a week before Christmas (December 17th this year), this exciting market comes to a screeching halt and remains quiet for the last two weeks of the year.
Therefore, resolve to stop trading for the year on Friday, December 17th and concentrate your attention on having the Merriest of Christmases and the Happiest of New Years.
As for January, traders come back from the holidays on January 3rd ready to start what they hope will be their best year ever. Instead of the predicted great start to the New Year, they very often get “cooked” during the first few trading days of the New Year. This typical slow start for the new year is due to the fact that many “other time-frame traders” take several days to several weeks to restart their trading and re-establish the positions they closed out in December to secure their year-end bonuses.
My advice is to avoid the first full week of the year, altogether. This year, go someplace warm and extend your holiday to January 10th. By doing so, you will have avoided a potentially disappointing start to the year and you will arrive on January 10th prepared to confidently face 2011 fully rested and nicely tanned – ready to begin your best trading year, ever.
I’m taking his advice and wrapping up my trading activities for the year. I will analyze my trade for this year (as how I described in my earlier post : Trade Statement Analysis (Fun with Monte Carlo), and share the results with everyone here.
Did European Union leaders make the sovereign debt crisis "go away" last week?
Not even close. What they did agree on is tougher budget rules:
"...17 countries of the euro zone...agreed to run only minimal budget deficits in the future and allowed the European Court of Justice the right to strike down national laws that don't enforce such discipline properly..."
Wall Street Journal, (12/9)
Will the EU agreement prove bullish or bearish for world stock markets, including the Dow Industrials?
Let's put it this way: The evidence suggests that government intervention in the economy does not alter the dominant trend of financial markets.
For example: Look at the DJIA chart and try to identify when the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other financial institutions.
"[The chart below] shows that in fact these actions took place in the early portion of the biggest stock market decline in 76 years. These actions did not push stock prices back up. The market finally bottomed months later, at a time when nothing along these lines happened."It is no good to claim that these actions had results eventually. By that reasoning, any future turn in the stock market would prove the contention."
Elliott Wave Theorist, March 2010
If anything, the face value of this chart argues that economic government intervention makes stocks go down.
There is simply no "cause and effect" relationship between government actions and stock market trends.
The stock market's price pattern is governed by the Wave Principle:
"Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life.
"....The market's progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement."
Elliott Wave Principle, (p. 21)
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline European Union Agreement: Good or Bad for the Dow Industrials?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Is the bank really the safest place to keep your money? Robert Prechter joins the Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell to discuss what backs bank deposits and how you can keep your hard-earned money safe.
We invite you to watch the interview below. Then read Robert Prechter's free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks.
What is the best course of action to safeguard your money?
Read our free 10-page report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks, to learn:
Download your free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks, now.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Is Backing Your Deposits in the Bank?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
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How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That's a joke in search of an answer, but EWI's European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the "light bulb moment" was coming -- that's the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.
This chart shows how markets in Greece, Ireland and Portugal have behaved over the past five years, including the bailouts. Whitmer says that the turmoil in Greece is due mostly to both social mood and Greek markets having plummeted for more than a year and a half, while the larger EU stock markets have levitated. Once they turn down, he forecasts that what you saw in Greece will be replayed in the eurozone.
To help his subscribers see the light and get the full picture, he compared EU member nations under financial scrutiny to those that are usually viewed as being safe -- and showed that they weren't as safe as most people thought.
Specifically, Whitmer warned that the debt per person in Greece looked eerily similar to the debt per person in highly regarded countries, such as Germany and France -- and even to non-eurozone countries, such as the United Kingdom.
In 2010, Britain proposed a five-year, 25% budget reduction that affects nearly every area of the government. While it sounds like a drastic measure, it has played out differently during the past year. According to member of European Parliament Daniel Hannan, statistics show that not only is government spending and borrowing significantly higher than this time last year, but taxes, too, are way up. Whitmer notes that the budget cuts rely heavily on the future and lack near-term bite.
Why has the worst of Europe's violence taken place on the streets of Athens rather than London? Athenians did not suddenly grow more violent in 2011. What has changed since 2007 is their stock market. Whitmer's words of advice: "...should your country's stock market begin to look like Greece's, watch out. Trouble will be on the way."
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European Financial Forecast Editor Brian Whitmer has covered Europe's debt crisis since March 2010 -- and his forecasts kept subscribers ahead of the downward spiral every step of the way. Read more of his analysis in our free report, "The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments."
Free Report
The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments
Continue reading more articles like this one by Brian Whitmer in our European Debt Crisis report. This free report offers commentary from February 2010 through November 2011 that will help you to better understand what could be in store in the coming months and years.
Download your free report now.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Light Bulb Moment for the Eurozone. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
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