USDCHF Forecast Update (15 May 2012)

Similar to the EURUSD, I think this is a wave 5 from hell! LOL.

If you refer to the video, the prices have sky rocketed to the trading zone identified at the daily timeframe.  And there was I silly enough to think that it would be turning soon based on the 1hourly.  Everyone knows that the higher timeframe takes precedence right?  Actually, nothing is for certain in trading, we just have to monitor the different timeframes and see which one is respected.

Here’s the daily chart showing that prices have entered into the daily TF trading zone that I pre-planned.

But we’ll always need to look at the lower timeframe to see how it unfolds.  And it’s not pretty! Here’s the 5min.

Can anyone say “PARABOLIC”?

Again, I find the waves expanding like crazy…. and I think there’s probably one move up left.  I’m sandwiching the price bands with alerts so I know which way it is breaking out.  I can smell this one growing ripe! 

EURUSD Forecast Update (15 May 2012)

Prices have entered my trading zone below 1.2870, and the strength of the move down is pretty strong! I’ve decided to look at a smaller time-frame - 5mins! (it’s a bad idea at times, I know!)
Here’s my wave 5 from hell……

I believe wave 5 is expanding so many times, it’s making my head spin! in fact, I don’t even think it’s done yet. Yes, there’s ANOTHER leg down perhaps before it will finish its wave… boy I certainly hope so!

USDCHF Forecast Follow-up (14 May 2012)

 

Quick follow up on USDCHF.

Upon market open, prices have gapped up above my original target reversal zone, and I’m revising my count to a expanded wave 5.  I’m going to monitor this closely.

USDCHF Forecast (12 May 2012)

Here’s my very first attempt at doing a video.  It’s (largely) unedited, but I think it gets the job done. :)
Let me have your feedback as comments.  I know it is rather messy… but it’ll get better!

Good luck with your trading!

Updates:
14 May 2012 Update - Price Gapped on Monday Market Open. Wave 5 Extended.

EURUSD Forecast (12 May 2012)

Hi Folks, it’s been a long while since I put up any forecast.  Here’s a quick and dirty on my thoughts on the EURUSD.

On the 8h Chart, I’m counting a Wave C of Y of (B).  Prices have returned to below 38.2% of its upward move, and Wave (B) looks like a complex correction.  Prices are overlapping enough for me to believe that it is a corrective move, and strength of downward movements appear rather strong, so I will be cautious in entering long.  But I do think that prices might be stalling soon.  Here’s why:

Around 1.2900 region we have:
(a) Wave Y = Wave W
(b) Wave c = Wave a
(c) Round Figure of 1.2900

Let’s look at my wave C at a lower timeframe.

It seems that momentum has been slowing down and is getting more difficult to count which is fairly characteristic of wave 4. I think it will move up a little before breaking 1.2900.  I would look for reversals around 1.2864-1.2875.

It is possible for prices to move up from here since the higher timeframe suggests that 1.2900 is a confluence of levels, but I think it will move lower before the move down is complete.

Here you go, be cautious with your trading, and remember, capital preservation is key!

Diagonal: Straight Shot to a Trading Opportunity

By Elliott Wave International

Today we sit down with Elliott Wave International's Futures Junctures Editor and Senior Tutorial Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy to discuss his favorite wave pattern of all: the diagonal.

EWI: You say if you had to pick just ONE of all 13 known Elliott wave structures to spend the rest of your technical trading life with, it would be the diagonal. First, tell us what the diagonal is.

Jeffrey Kennedy: The diagonal is a five-wave pattern labeled 1 through 5, in which each leg subdivides into three smaller waves: 3-3-3-3-3. Unlike impulse waves, however, diagonals are the only five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend in which wave 4 almost always moves into the price territory of wave 1. (See illustrations below.)

EWI: So, what makes this pattern so darn special?

JK: As you can see in the above charts, the diagonal is a terminating pattern. They can only occur in waves 5 of impulses or C-waves of corrections. This is why they're so exciting. Diagonals precede a dramatic change in trend. And, when they end, prices tend to retrace the entire pattern, or more, and fast -- in 1/3 to 1/2 the time it took the pattern to form.
Put simply: If you see a diagonal, you know the train of change is coming into the station.

EWI: Well, in your Daily Futures Junctures service, you do, in fact, see a diagonal underway in the recent price action of a major grain market. There, you present the following Elliott wave chart (some Elliott labels have been removed, while I took the liberty to draw a blue circle around the diagonal pattern for clarity):

JK: Yes. This is a classic diagonal unfolding in the final wave of the larger trend. As you can see, prices have put the finishing touches on wave (v) of c (circled). And, if my wave count is correct, this market's prices are about to board the "Exciting Southbound Turn" Railway.

EWI: Thank you so much for taking the time to explain the ins and outs of your favorite structure, the diagonal. And also, for alerting readers to the possible DRAMA in store for this major grain market thanks to this Elliott wave pattern.

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Learn More about Diagonals and Other Elliott Wave Patterns

Get a better understanding of Elliott wave analysis with our Elliott Wave Patterns educational feature. You'll have access to basic lessons on Elliott wave patterns, along with video clips from our online courses which will explain the pattern, the rules and the guidelines.

Plus, you'll see real-life examples that show you how each pattern fits into the overall wave structure. Some patterns will even offer a brief quiz to test your knowledge and ensure that you understand the material.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Diagonal: Straight Shot to a Trading Opportunity. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.