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Friday, May 27, 2011

What Does a Fractal Look Like?

What Does a Fractal Look Like?
And What Does It Have to Do with the Stock Market?
May 26, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

If the word 'fractal' comes up at all in conversation, that conversation is probably being held in a mathematics department. However, anyone who is interested in the Wave Principle and how it applies to the stock market may have stumbled across the phrase "robust fractal." If you want to know more about what it means in that context, here's an excerpt from Elliott Wave International's primer on fractals that explains the connection.

* * * * *

Excerpted from The Human Social Experience Forms a Fractal
by Robert R. Prechter

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that aggregate stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. In a series of books and articles published from 1938 to 1946, he described the stock market as a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similarly shaped at different scales.

Although Elliott came to his conclusions fifty years before the new science of fractals blossomed, he took a step that current observers of natural processes have yet to take. He explained not only that the progress of the market was fractal in nature but discovered and described the component patterns. The patterns that Elliott discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated and defined a number of patterns, or "waves," that recur in market price data. He named and illustrated the patterns. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns at the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle….

The Stock Market as a Robust Fractal
A classic example of a self-identical fractal is nested squares. One square is surrounded by eight squares of the same size, which forms a larger square, which is surrounded by eight squares of that larger size, and so on.

A classic example of an indefinite fractal is the line that delineates a seacoast. When viewed from space, a seacoast has a certain irregularity of contour. If we were to drop to ten miles above the earth, we would see only a portion of the seacoast, but the irregularity of contour of that portion would resemble that of the whole. From a hundred feet up in a balloon, the same thing would be true.

Photo of Madeira coastline, near Sao Jorge, by Plane Person (source: Wikimedia Commons)
Scientists today recognize financial markets' price records as fractals, but they presume them to be of the indefinite variety. Elliott undertook a meticulous investigation of financial market behavior and found something different. He described the record of stock market prices as a specifically patterned fractal yet with variations in its quantitative expression. I call this type of fractal, which has properties of both self-identical and indefinite fractals, a robust fractal. Robust fractals permeate life forms. Trees, for example, are branching robust fractals, as are animals, circulatory systems, bronchial systems and nervous systems. The stock market record belongs in the category of life forms since it is a product of human social interaction.

How Is the Stock Market Patterned?

Idealized Wave Development and Subdivisions

Figure 1 shows Elliott's idea of how the stock market is patterned. If you study this depiction, you will see that each component, or "wave," within the overall structure subdivides in a specific way by one simple rule: If the wave is heading in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into five waves. If the wave is heading in the opposite direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into three waves (or a variation). These are called motive and corrective waves, respectively. Each of these waves adheres to specific traits and tendencies of construction, as described in Elliott Wave Principle (1978).

Waves subdivide this way down to the smallest observable scale, and the entire process continues to develop larger and larger waves as time progresses. Each wave's degree may be identified numerically by relative size on a sort of social Richter scale.

Want to Know More About Fractals and the Stock Market? Then read the whole special report, called "The Human Social Experience Forms a Fractal." It's free of charge, so long as you are a member of Club EWI, which gives you access to many free reports that explain Elliott wave analysis and the Wave Principle.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Does a Fractal Look Like?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

How to Put the Wave Principle to Work

 

In the video below, EWI Senior Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy walks you through a basic checklist of how to put the Wave Principle to work. This clip was taken from The Wave Principle Applied webinar, originally recorded for Futures Junctures subscribers.

Get 45 pages of FREE practical lessons in Elliott Wave International's Best of Trader's Classroom eBook

Would you like to learn more about trading with the Wave Principle? Get 45 pages of FREE practical lessons in Elliott Wave International's Best of Trader's Classroom eBook . Taken from Jeffrey Kennedy's renowned Trader's Classroom series, this FREE 45-page collection offers 14 actionable lessons that will help you determine entry points, stop levels and price targets for the markets you trade.

Download The Best of Trader's Classroom now

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Last Chance: 120 Pages of Complimentary Stock Market Analysis

There are just days left for you to download Elliott Wave International’s current issue of Global Market Perspective, FREE!

Don't miss your chance to get 120 pages full of investment analysis and forecasts for every major world market.

Recently, you've witnessed these exceptional market moves:

  • A dramatic turnaround for metals, especially silver
  • 100+ point swings in the Dow on a regular basis
  • Frequent 1% moves in foreign stock markets
  • Extreme oil prices
  • The U.S. dollar's attempt at recovery

Where will the markets go next? You owe it to yourself to get a global perspective on what is happening in the world markets and see what it means for your portfolio.

Global Market Perspective includes Elliott Wave International’s analysis of stock and interest rate markets in three regions -- including the DJIA, FTSE, and Hang Seng -- plus analysis from EWI’s market specialists who cover gold & silver, crude oil, the dollar, euro and other world currencies and cross rates.

A $49 value -- it's yours free. But hurry -- the offer expires May 31!

Download your free120-page issue of Global Market Perspective now.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Is It Possible to Have Panic Buying?

Is It Possible to Have Panic Buying?
May 23, 2011
By Robert Folsom

"Panic selling" is easy to understand and recognize: Investors rush to sell from the fear of loss. No more explanation necessary.

On the other hand, "panic buying" is not easy to see for what it is. The phrase seems to clash with itself. People commonly assume that "buying" involves rational choices by investors, who assess risk, calculate entry points, establish stops, etc.

None of that happens in a panic. So how can you have "panic buying"?

For starters, you have it when fear actually motivates investors to buy. Whereas fear of loss motivates panic selling, investors get in a buying panic when they're afraid of missing out on the profits they see everyone else making.

Such as, for example, panic buying in the silver market from late January through late April of this year. Buyers drove prices from $26.40 per oz. (Jan. 28) to $49.80 (April 25), a gain of more than 80 percent in under three months.

You probably have a good idea of what followed in the first week of May: more than half those gains vanished in four trading sessions. The direction changed, but the emotion did not. Fear inflated and deflated the same bubble.

This excerpt from Elliott Wave International's free issue of Global Market Perspective depicts that panic.

The chart below shows that daily trading volume in the exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), surged to a record 189 million shares on April 25, days prior to silver’s peak. Then, just a few days after the peak, on May 5, it reached nearly 300 million shares, another record. The first record was on buying fever, the second on a selling panic. As shown on the chart, both levels far surpass the daily trading volume in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), which is generally the most heavily traded fund in the world.

A Speculative Rout

Through Wednesday, seven out of the past nine days have seen the daily volume in SLV outpace that of SPY. This is unprecedented behavior. “Day traders are going crazy,” says the head of trading at one brokerage firm. “Investors who felt they may have missed the boat with gold have jumped into silver because it has a better price point,” said a precious metals analyst. A Bloomberg story attributes the rise in SLV’s volume to “worries about inflation and the weakness in the U.S. Dollar.” But the real reason, in our view, is simply the same old mania story. Higher prices in silver got people more excited about the prospects of even higher prices, as they always do. The excitement hit a speculative crescendo when SLV reached a new high of 48.35 on April 28, unconfirmed by the price of the metal itself.

Get the full story on Silver in the current issue of Global Market Perspective in a Special Section, titled "A Silver Bullet Sets Things in Motion." You can get the 100+ page issue FREE through May 31. It includes analysis and forecasts for world stock and interest rate markets, crude oil, metals, currencies and more.

Download your FREE issue of Global Market Perspective now.

Monday, May 23, 2011

EUR/USD: Falling on "Risk Aversion"? Let's Look at the Timeline First

EUR/USD: Falling on "Risk Aversion"? Let's Look at the Timeline First
It's not the "bad news" from Europe that has been pushing the euro lower
May 19, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

From the May 4 top near $1.4950, the EUR/USD (the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively-traded forex pair) has fallen as low as $1.4050 on May 16.

In other words, the dollar has gained 9 full cents on the euro in less than two weeks. That's a huge move, and people want explanations. And what the media offers boils down to "risk aversion," in light of "the bad news from Greece." And that sounds good -- until you check the timeline.

The latest wave of trouble in Europe started on May 3, when Portugal asked for a bailout. If you think that event is what pushed forex traders towards "risk aversion" -- think again. The euro happily gained against the U.S. dollar the following day, May 4, pushing the exchange rate to that high near $1.50.

And if you think the trouble in Greece pushed the EUR/USD lower -- again, please reconsider. Greece made a splash in the news on May 9, when its credit rating was downgraded. But by then the EUR/USD had already fallen some 700 pips, to the mid $1.42 range.

So, as good and logical as all the mainstream stories sound about "risk aversion" and "bad news from Europe," the timing of events doesn't fit. What then gave the dollar the strength -- and at a time when almost everyone expected it to only fall further?

Believe it or not (and it's easy to believe it, because, as this example shows, there's no better explanation) the news doesn't set broad trends in forex. Collective emotions of forex traders do. In early May, the majority was betting against the dollar. When everyone places their bets and there is no new money left to push the price further, it has no choice but to reverse.

That's why it pays to be extra cautious in the financial markets when everyone takes the same side of a trade. True, markets can stay overbought or oversold for a while, but the reversal inevitably comes -- and the stronger the one-sided conviction, the bigger the reversal.

The advantage Elliott wave analysis gives you is this: Wave patterns in forex charts track the collective mindset of the market players. By anticipating the price points where the Elliott wave pattern should end, you get a pretty good idea of where the trend should stop and reverse. 
See for yourself how it works -- FREE -- during EWI's Forex FreeWeek now through May 26. Learn more >>


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline EUR/USD: Falling on "Risk Aversion"? Let's Look at the Timeline First. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.