The Kelly Criterion

I just returned from a gathering with a group of traders, and one of them shared a very interesting concept today - The Kelly Criterion. I'm no expert on it... so decided to google it and you can read up about it here.

Under money management, there are two schools of thought - Fixed Fractional Method and Fixed Ratio Method. For both methods, one needs to decide what is the position size to trade. Under Fixed Fractional Method, there's what's called an "optimal F" which is generally achievable only on hindsight. So Kelly Criteron comes in nicely to help determine what kind of market exposure you can take on your trade. Interesting stuff... new to me still, and something you might want to explore.

Cheers!

Trading for a Living

There are many people who dream of trading for a living. It does appear to have certain perks - total freedom of time, no reporting to bosses, unlimited earnings potential...etc

But living of trading profits can be more difficult and complex that it first appears. And providers of FX training would often portray how easy it is to be profitable with their own trading strategies.

I came across this 2007 old post on ForexFactory. It really provides some cold hard facts on what it takes and the reality of trading for a living. It deserves a thorough read and thinking through.

Freeweek from Elliott Wave International

Once each year or so, our friends at Elliott Wave International do something unheard-of in the world of financial analysis – they give it away for free!

But it always ends soon after it starts, so your time to get more than 100 pages of free analysis and forecasts on every major world market is running out.

This time they've upped the ante.

For the first time ever, EWI is giving away one month of its most popular global analysis publication, a 120-page "little black book" of investment insights called Global Market Perspective, which includes EWI's three regional publications:
1. The U.S. Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($19/month value)
2. The European Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($29/month value)
3. The Asian-Pacific Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($31/month value)

PLUS, the 120-page book includes analysis culled straight from EWI's professional-grade Specialty Services, each of which is valued at $199/month. This means you also get analysis and forecasts for the following global markets:
- World stock markets (China, Japan, Korea, U.S, France, Britain and more)
- Global interest rates (Australia, Europe, Japan, U.S.)
- International currency relationships (U.S. Dollar, Euro rates, Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen and more)
- Metals and Energy (Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas)
- And so much more!

This is truly a very rare occasion, and it only lasts for just a few more days. Whether you use Elliott or not, we highly recommend you stop by the webpage below and take advantage of this limited-time, completely free offer.

Learn how to get your free 120 pages of global analysis here

ATIC 2009 (18-19 Apr 2009)

The Asia Trader & Investor Convention will be held at Suntec City on 18 & 19 Apr 2009. If you are interested, do visit the website to get your free tickets. :)

Free Elliott Wave Theory Tutorial

Hi Folks, it appears that Elliott Wave International has re-released the EWI Basic Tutorial. It features 10 lessons across 50 pages adapted from Bob Prechter’s Wall Street bestselling, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior; and it’s probably the most comprehensive free Elliott wave resource on the Internet. :)

If you hadn't accessed it yet, click here to find out more. By the way, you would have to sign up as a member (its free!) to access the tutorial.

To give you a sense of its coverage, here is the outline of the 10 lessons:

Lesson 1
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Short History
1.3 Basic Tenets
1.4 Wave Mode
1.5 Essential Design
1.6 Wave Numbers
1.7 Degrees
1.8 Wave Function

Lesson 2
2.1 Motive Waves
2.2 Extension
2.3 Truncation

Lesson 3
3.1 Diagonal Triangles
3.2 Diagonals
3.3 Leading Diagonals
3.4 Corrective Waves
3.5 Zigzags

Lesson 4
4.1 Flats(3-3-5)
4.2 Expanded Flats
4.3 Triangles
4.4 Triangle Examples

Lesson 5
5.1 Correctives
5.2 Wave Formation
5.3 Function & Mode
5.4 Alternation
5.5 Alternation cont.
5.6 Corrective Waves
5.7 Wave Extensions

Lesson 6
6.1 Channeling
6.2 Technique
6.3 More Guidelines
6.4 Volume

Lesson 7
7.1 Wave Personality
7.2 Personality cont.
7.3 Ideal Personality
7.4 Wave Tendencies
7.5 The Basics
7.6 Application
7.7 Application cont.

Lesson 8
8.1 Fibonacci
8.2 Fibonacci cont.
8.3 Sequence
8.4 Sequence cont.
8.5 Geometry
8.6 Golden Spiral
8.7 Spiral cont.

Lesson 9
9.1 Meaning of Phi
9.2 Conceptual Phi
9.3 Phi and Elliott

Lesson 10
10.1 Phi & the Market
10.2 Phi cont.
10.3 Additive Growth

Except for buying the book, I don't think you will find another site with more comprehensive resource. Enjoy the tutorial!

Singapore May Devalue Currency in April, Survey Shows (Update1)

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Monetary Authority of Singapore may devalue the city’s currency and allow it to drop 4 percent against the U.S. dollar by June 30 to aid exporters and lift the economy out of the worst recession since independence in 1965.

Read More here.