EURUSD Forecast (30 Nov 08)

Here's a follow up on my post on 18 Nov 08.



Prices have spiked up above 1.2856 without first breaking 1.2400, invalidating the diagonal pattern. So the entry was never hit. The alternate wave count I have for this is a WXY count.


There are two ways to trade this.

On the larger degree, it is now completing its wave Y and overall direction is downwards. We can enter a short at around 1.3200, but I think price is likely to go beyond 1.3300. Regardless of where you place your entry, stop Loss is at 1.3540 based on EW. I've decided to place mine a little higher at 1.3700. Target is 1.2400 for now.

On the smaller degree, it has either completed its wave b (at 61.8% retracement) or will proceed to move downwards. An entry at the 78.9% retracement level will give better risk-reward ratio. Stoploss as is at the previous low, I've placed it at 1.2400.

In short:

Possible trades:
Entry Limit (Short) : 1.3200 / 1.3300
Stop Loss : 1.3700 / 1.3540
Take Profit : 1.2400

Entry Limit (Long) : 1.2680 / 1.2600
Stop Loss : 1.2400
Take Profit : 1.3200 / 1.3300

What do you think?

EURUSD Forecast (18 Nov 08)

Its been sometime since I looked at the charts. Couldn't resist and decided to look at one of the charts today - EURUSD. It would be better if I looked at some of the other charts too... but will make do for EURUSD for now.

Daily Chart













Counting from the significant top in July 08, looks like we are in the process of a wave 5 (or wave 5 might have completed). The swings on the daily are somewhat too huge for my trading appetite, so I'll look at the 4 hour chart.

4 Hour Chart













I'm counting the move as a possible diagonal for a wave v. My set-up as follows:

Entry (Long) : 1.2400
Stop Loss : 1.2100
Take Profit 1 : 1.2850
Take Profit 2 : 1.3200

1.2400 is a fairly good area to go long for a few reasons:
1. It is a support level
2. It is a psychological support level (whole number)
3. As a wave e, it is 61.8% the length of wave c.

Once again, this is based on a quick analysis, and not as thorough as I normally like it to be. Since I'm looking at this as a diagonal, a break below 1.2400 is normal, but a break below 1.2100 invalidates the wave count for a diagonal.

That's it for now. Good luck with your trading!

Currency strategist Keith Miller on the currency markets

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