Elliott Wave Summary Tool

I come up with an excel spreadsheet once to tabulate my preferred and alternate wavecounts for a variety of currency pairs. It really takes time and discipline to use it constantly, but for a start, it can help provide some overview as to what's happening in the markets.

Feel free to take and use it if you find the spreadsheet useful.

EW Summary - Upload a Document to Scribd

AUDUSD Forecast (27 Sep 08) - Correction

My friend told me that his wavecount was different from mine.... so I went back a took a second look at how I did mine. And I realised.... my wavecount was wrong.

While I said that a Wave b of B was underway, my charts actually labelled wave b of C. What's wrong with that? Well.... Wave C sub-divides into 5 waves, not 3. So if I label a-b-c, I'd be wrong. Unless of course, Wave C is a diagonal and subdivides into 3-3-3-3-3. That's one possibility, but its too early to tell.

Another possibility is that, instead of a A-B-C. What I have is a W-X-Y. Tada!! Each in itself can be a contained 3-waves. And if that's true, then we can look for alternation between Waves X and Y.

Overall, I must say that this chart isn't very easy to label for me. Haha... and here's my revised chart with the W-X-Y count.



There's a reason why I'm still counting it as a corrective move. Overall, wave structure takes precedent. And the waves I've labelled W-X-Y all look corrective to me.

So in summary, I still think that at the 4h chart its either a
A) A-B-C Expanded Flat Correction with C wave as a Diagonal.
B) W-X-Y Correction (that still looks like an expanded flat?? haha)

I thought we'll take a look at other people's count as well. I've taken this from DailyFX, and its a chart by Jamie Saettele.



If I look at the significant low, I agree with her that the move up looks corrective and warrants an a-b-c count. The only thing that I disagree with is the labelling of wave v. Which doesn't look implusive nor look like a diagonal to me. Since interpretation of the charts are subjective, I suggest you pull up your own charts and make-up your own opinion. Her chart could very well be the correct one.

Looking at Fundamentals next week.... Markets could well be consolidating while waiting for non-farm payroll on Friday. Before that, Aussie has quite a number of news events too. It'll be a busy week... keep a close watch if you can!

Alright, that's it for now. Pretty long post compared to yesterday's. I hope I can find another chart with a clearer wave count.

AUDUSD Forecast (26 Sep 08)

Looks like AUDUSD is headed way way down, and my count on the AUDUSD is shown below.



In a nutshell, I'm counting it as a wave 4 (I used roman numerals in the chart) expanded flat retracement. On the daily chart, I'm expecting price to move further up for shorting opportunities. Fundamentally speaking, with all the chaos on the bailout proposal, I think no one knows where the dollar is really headed. So I'm sticking to technicals.

Lets look at the 4h charts.



I think its currently in its b of B wave. So I'm looking for a long opportunity around .8080, Stop .7790, and take profit around .8500. Because of the strong support/resistance level there, it'll probably bounce off that level and I may make another long trade if the opportunity arises. Alternatively, if you have a large enough position size, you can take your first profit at .8500 and let the remaining run to about .8770 (that's 1.616 of the A wave). I still think it will probably bounce off the .8500 level though.

Well, that's it for this short post. Good luck with your trading!

Investor Superconverence '08

There's an upcoming Investors' Superconference in Oct 08. For an early bird price of $399 for 2 days worth of talks by some pretty renown people, I think its a pretty good deal. Note that I'm not receiving any benefits for writing about this event... I just think that based on the speakers, its a pretty interesting talk.

I've listed the 5 speakers below for easy reference. Actually, looking at their expertise and the topics covered, I wonder why they didn't call it a traders' superconference instead...

------------------------
Speakers for Investor Superconference '08
Ron Ianieri
Chief Market Strategist, Options Unversity
Trainer of Today’s Top Wall Street Floor Traders & Regularly seen on CNBC Asia, Fox Business News, Bloomberg Asia

John Person
President of Nationalfutures.com
Master of Candlesticks, Pivot Point Pioneer and Best Selling Author

David “Firstwave” Elliott
Technical Analysis Wizard
Twice Voted World’s #1 Market Timer!

Tom Sosnoff
Founder, thinkorswim
20 years Market Maker on CBOE and featured in publications like Wall Street Journal and Barron’s

Price Headley
Founder, Bigtrends.com
Top 10 Stock Market Timer, Best Selling Author featured on CNBC, Fox News and Bloomberg Television

Fickle-Minded Markets

You know by now that I'm hardly trade based on Fundamental News or Expectations. But I do look at news to

1. Keep updated on the economy
2. Identify market psychology/sentiment
3. Identify possible market-moving news

Ok... The 3rd one does sound like I trade the news, so it needs alittle elaboration. Basically, markets love to wait for news to move, many times in a direction that it intends to move anyway - this includes both reversals and continuation. What does this mean? If I got a really good technical set-up, with good risk-reward ratios and a proper stop-loss, I'd likely keep my trades and expect the news to move my trades in my direction. :)

Back to the topic of news, this post also serves as a reminder to myself. Just some weeks back, people thought that US Markets had bottomed out and the worst was behind. Several tropical storms, like Gustas and Ike, threatening to impact oil production and cause further dollar weakness. But the dollar continued to rally, and oil continued to drop as the storms one by one passed without any long-term significant impact on oil production. Naturally, factors impacting oil prices are many and goes beyond just oil-production, but that's another topic in itself.

So the dollar rallied, markets became hawkish, and here's what I think was interesting - People were starting to expect the Fed to hike rates! Personally, I agree with what Buffet and Sorros and expressed sometime during this entire Sub-prime saga - The housing market is weak and may continue to weaken, and this is likely to continue for quite sometime still.

But look at how quickly the market turns! Just a couple of weeks back, people were expecting rate-hikes, and how people are looking at possible rate-cuts.

People might say - "Hey! No one expected Lehman to file for bankrupcy, and why did the Fed suddenly stop bailing out companies now? This is an unexpected development!" So suddenly, expectations have switched.

That's one reason why I remind myself not to be too caught up with the crowd psychology, and while news is important to know, it really should never be the key/only deciding factor for your trades.

Alright... just ranting. The markets never cease to amaze me.

[P.S. The article above was written based on memory, for actual opinions expressed by Buffet and Sorros, do a google search. =) ]

News Sharing

While I'm a technical trader, there is still a need to keep updated on the current affairs which would affect the market, or at least market sentiments. To do so, I subscribe to various news feeds via Google Reader.

I've just realised that Blogger now allows me to share interesting news bits that I read on Google Reader, and I've just added the widget to do so. Look to the right side, and there's a segment that says "Alex's shared items", and those are news items that I think are interesting bits to be shared. Hope you enjoy this new feature!

Chartered Market Technician (CMT)

While studying for my Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exam, I came across a new (new to me at least) designation called the Chartered Market Technician (CMT). I thought I had previously written about it, but it appears I hadn't.

The CMT is mainly for technical traders and shows that a market technician has both broad-base and in-depth knowledge on technical aspects of the markets. It is something that I will consider going for in future, but since I'm already working on my CFA I'll leave it for another time. Somehow though, I think the CMT exam is somewhat easier to tackle if you have a keen interest in technicals and have already been reading books on the subject extensively. If you take a look at the recommended readings, you will find that these are common TA books in the markets.

Well, anyone interested to give it a shot? :)

More info via the Market Technicians Association website.