EURJPY Forecast (25 Jul 2012)

Prices have tumbled down as expected, though alittle faster that I thought.  Prices are now at the bottom of the channel line again.  This is a good time to pay attention to the price action.

EURUSD Forecast (23 Jun 2012)

The recent price movement for EURUSD and AUDUSD looks very similar, indicating that price movements are probably due to the USD.  However, at larger timeframes the two currency pairs are very different.

1h Chart

I’ve not been sure of the EURUSD, and the waves unfolding has been challenging.  So, I’ve decided to put a few wave counts into it.  My preferred wave count is in white, alternate counts are in yellow and red.  These are independent of each other.

In either case, I think there’s further downside in the short term, and I’m looking for shorting opportunities around 1.2610 level which happens to be the 50% retracement level of wave 3, and 1.381 extension of wave a.

AUDUSD Forecast (23 Jun 2012)

It’s the weekend again.  Time to take a step back and look at the charts from ground up.  I’ve learnt that during the week, I can end up looking at the smaller timeframe and lose track of the larger time frame, and the weekend is a good time to recalibrate.

Weekly Chart

Prices have been moving up strongly and nicely as predicted in the longer timeframe.  Nothing yet in this timeframe to make me change my mind.  That’s expected though, since it’s a long timeframe…. so if it’s wrong, it will take a longer time too.  A reason why I look at the lower timeframe too.

1h Chart

Here’s the 1h chart.  Please ignore the near horizontal lines cutting across the charts.  The lines drawn on the weekly timeframe becomes abit haywire in the lower timeframe.

It looks like a decline has started. There’s a trendline break, and the move down looks fairly impulsive.  Meaning we might be having a zig-zag for a correction.  My alternate count is that my wave 3, is in fact wave 5, and we are looking at a larger decline.  Either way, my short term view is for this to go lower.

1h Chart

I’ll be looking to go short at the 50%-61.8% retracement levels – see the shorting area on my chart.  Those levels also happen to coincide with some natural support and resistance levels.  Once the corrective move up unfolds in a more countable A-B-C pattern, then we can have a more precise entry level target.

Stop loss will be about 100-125 pips away behind the peak of the high.  I’ll keep my size small.  Once price confirms, I’ll lower the stop loss and increase my position size to manage my risk.

Good luck with your trading!

EURUSD Forecast (19 Jun 2012)

I am looking for a shorting opportunity for the EURUSD, and this may just be it.

15min Chart 

Prices have made a nice retracement of 61.8%.  It is around the 1.618 extension of the first rally up.  Price is around the S&R level due to the price gap. 

So we can place a trade here, and there are a few places you can place the stop:

a) Put a stop above the wave  ii high – about 1.2725.
b) If you want to be more conservative, you can place the stop just above the wave i low – 1.2672. 
c) A possible alternate wave count is that wave ii was in fact the wave 2 which unfolded as an expanded flat.  Then you would place the stop just above wave 1 – 1.2704.

Alternatively, you can wait for price to confirm, i.e. make a series of lower lows, before you enter.  Of course, that means you get in short at a level price level.

Fingers crossed… (I’m crossing my fingers quite abit lately, aren’t I?)

EURJPY Forecast 2 (19 Jun 2012)

Here’s a quick follow-up.  EURJPY has made a nice rally.  I would take partial profits off, to ensure that if price reversed, I will still be positive, or at least break even.  Now I can sleep better tonight.  :)

Stay safe in your trading!

EURJPY Forecast (19 Jun 2012)

Still being extremely cautious with this pair.  It’s been range bound (about 50pips) for the past few hours. Prices seem to be respecting the supporting trending, which suggest that the channel may still be effective.  Any break downwards would give me a bias to go short.  For now, I’m long with a small stop (below the low of 99.06) with a small position.

1h Chart

Many people telling me to stay short….. Fingers crossed now…..

EURUSD Forecast (18 Jun 2012)

I’ve revised my view on the EURUSD so many times, I’m almost embarrassed. haha! Prices have broken the high of my wave A, but price movement is so overlapping, I’m extremely reluctant to count that as a wave C. So I’m counting that as a wave b rally of an expanded flat. I might be pushing it somewhat… but here’s the chart!

4h Chart

EURJPY Forecast (18 Jun 2012)

Challenging times for wave counting.  Here’s my view on EURJPY

8H Chart

On the 8h timeframe, it looks like there’s still another wave down that’s waiting to unfold.  The recent rally looks to be a corrective one, and has stagnated at the S&R level of 100.80. Wave count suggest that it can probably still go higher (about 101.50-102.00 region for first target), but the price weakness is a concern and needs to be watched carefully.

1H Chart

As mentioned at the start of this post…. wave count is challenging.  So I’m looking at the overall picture first.  The rally is nicely bound by channel lines, suggesting that the rally is a corrective one (which it should be for a wave 4).

There are two sets of channel lines where the gradient of the second set appears much gentler. Again, this suggests that price may be losing strength in this rally.  However price-wise, I am expecting prices to go higher as per the 8H chart above. 

Adopting a wait and see approach for now.  Meanwhile, can trade smaller timeframes, and other price patterns like the gap that just occurred over the weekend. (Of course, it’s too late to take the trade now.  Good luck for those who went short earlier! )

AUDUSD Forecast (18 Jun 2012)

 

Daily Chart

On a larger timeframe, prices are going up nicely as forecasted late last month. I think it may have a ways up to go before coming back down. We can draw nice channel lines which bounds the price movement. Let’s take a look at the smaller time frame.

4H Chart

Please ignore the lines.  They are the same lines from the daily chart, just that they look more confusing when we zoom in.  I’m counting the middle segment of overlapping waves as a running triangle.  That’s the best count I can come up with the wave structure I’m seeing.   Can look to trade the AUDUSD Long for the wave 5 if it retraces back.

I am finding the wave structure difficult to count this period, so I’m keeping my losses tight and my trading conservative by taking profits along the way.

EURUSD Forecast (14 Jun 2012)

I know I’d been saying that prices will go higher in this correction.  And as the waves unfolded, I’m becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the earlier count, and am now opting for a different count.  This count however, would suggest a rather different prices movement.

Here’s the wave count:

1h Chart

The decline after the gap has been far too strong.  An although at the lower timeframe it is challenging to count the 5-wave subdivisions, I’m now going to opt for this count.  The entire move up, is in fact a a-b-c move upwards, with a diagonal for the wave c.

Wave A has been completed with that gap up which completed the diagonal.  The subsequent strong decline then begins a wave a of B.

If wave b of B is completed (the recent rally), then perhaps the price action that is coming will looking something like this:

A decline to around the 1.2380 level, followed by a rally of a similar magnitude of wave A, leading to around the 1.2770 level.

Alternate Count

The alternate count is that the entire wave A is in fact the wave 4 correction, and the wave a of B that I’m counting is in fact the start of a larger degree decline for wave 5.

Stay alert, as the Greece Elections on 17th Jun, and the upcoming news releases may produce some fairly wild swings.

USDJPY Forecast (13 Jun 2012)

Looks like there’s another triangle in the making for USDJPY.  I’ll be watching this, and have set an alert for a price breakout upwards, and for it to hit my expected wave e completion.

Triangles are usually continuation patterns, so I’m expecting prices to break upwards upon completion.

EURUSD Forecast (12 Jun 2012)

With the nice price movements, I’ve now revised my count somewhat.  I’ve been warned that gaps usually close, (yes I knew that…).  Anyway, here’s the new count on the 1 hour.

1H Chart

I am still counting the gap up as a beginning of the wave C for this retracement.  Although prices are dangerously close to invalidating my wave counts. So if the low of my wave B is taken out, it may be time to review the whole count again.

Alternatively, the whole thing could be unfolding as some sort of diagonal triangle right now.

EURUSD Forecast (11 Jun 2012)

Hope everyone is doing well with your trades.  I’ve been away and had not been able to follow the markets closely for the past 4 days.   And it’s interesting to see how prices have unfolded since my last post on EURUSD.

Prices have retraced nicely, and then spike up strongly.  It has since slowly trailed downwards.  Here’s a 4h Chart:

4h Chart

Let’s drill down.

1h Chart

15min Chart

I’m expecting a 5-wave move for wave C.  So here are my expectations of the markets based on this wave count.

a) This decline will not go below 1.2516 (wave 1 high)
b) The current high of 1.2661 will be taken out before the low of 1.2435
c) Once prices turn, I’ll start looking for possible areas where wave 5 of this correction is ending. Currently, based on a Wave C = Wave A projection, that price level is around 1.2770.

I’ll be looking for the markets to tell me if I’m correct or not.  Meanwhile, stay safe while trading!

EURUSD Forecast (8 Jun 2012)

Here’s a quick 4h Chart.  I think the corrective rally is well in place. Overall trend is still bearish.

4H Chart

Safe Trading!

AUDUSD Forecast (7 Jun 2012)

 

In my AUDUSD Forecast (23 May 2012), I indicated that the AUDUSD decline may be ready for a rally.  Since then, prices have shot up strongly suggesting that may wavecount may be in effect.

Weekly Chart

The strong green candlestick suggest that we may be having a rally starting.

15min Chart

I’m counting the wave upwards as impulsive waves.  Looking at a wave v to be completed before I see a wave 4 decline.

USDCHF Forecast (6 Jun 2012)

Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart, I still think that the rally is a wave B rally in an expanded flat, which means we can start looking for nice shorting opportunities once the rally is complete.

4H Chart

On the 4h chart, my preferred count is that we have completed wave v of 3, and are in the process of a wave 4 decline.  The decline while strong looks very much like a 3-wave structure. And since it is a wave 4 decline, I’m expecting a deeper retracement to correct the entire wave 3 structure.

15min Chart

Down to the 15min chart now.  Even at the 15min chart, the decline looks corrective.  And it looks like we have a 5 wave up for a wave a of (b).  My view of the short term is a rally to around the 0.9685 region where we can look for shorting opportunities.

If you are feeling adventurous, you can look at taking a long position when price makes a higher high, with a stop below the low of wave (a) around 0.9570. Remember though, that in the daily timeframe, there’s a long pin bar which may indicate a larger decline in the longer time frame.

Immediate-Term Bias : Bullish
Medium-Term Bias : Bearish

Safe Trading!

EURUSD Forecast (5 Jun 2012)

Hi everyone, getting pretty tied up with many things this few weeks so am not able to do much analysis on my charts. Here’s a quick one of the EURUSD

4h Chart

There’s a very sharp rally in the EURUSD as seen in the chart.  I still doubt that the decline is over, but my wave count suggests that a wave 3 decline might be over, so a wave 4 is probably in effect right now.  I shall wait for the wave count to clarify itself. In the meantime, the dotted yellow line is an indication of how I think prices may be moving.

EURUSD Forecast (31 May 2012)

 

1H Chart

Prices for EURUSD like the one for USDJPY has made a nice run down.  I find the waves for EURUSD getting more difficult to count, but I suspect that the wave has not yet completed its 5 waves.

There’s a rounding bottom reversal, and price looks quite strong on the upside.  I’ll be cautious and take partial profits, or exit all together and look for new opportunities.

Good luck with your trading!

USDJPY Forecast (31 May 2012)

I hope you had been happily riding the wave down after the past two entries on the USDJPY.

Price has made considerable move downwards, and I can count 5 waves of some degree completed.  This may be a good area to lock in some profits and let the prices ride.  If it it extends, that puts extra cash into the account.  But it is prudent to expect some correction after the 5 waves down.

Hourly Chart

Based on the post-triangle thrust measurement (see the vertical white line on the chart), price still have a ways to go.  The 5 waves down may below to an extended wave 3, which means there’s a possible correction for a wave 4, and then for prices to move back down to complete wave 5. Either way, it is good to preserve capital over being greedy for gains.

EURUSD Forecast (30 May 2012)

Following up on my previous wave count, it does seem like wave .iv has completed, and it’s making its wave .v down.  The only thing is, it seems to me like wave .v is sub-dividing, which means, more bearish potential.