AUDUSD Forecast (23 Jun 2012)

It’s the weekend again.  Time to take a step back and look at the charts from ground up.  I’ve learnt that during the week, I can end up looking at the smaller timeframe and lose track of the larger time frame, and the weekend is a good time to recalibrate.

Weekly Chart

Prices have been moving up strongly and nicely as predicted in the longer timeframe.  Nothing yet in this timeframe to make me change my mind.  That’s expected though, since it’s a long timeframe…. so if it’s wrong, it will take a longer time too.  A reason why I look at the lower timeframe too.

1h Chart

Here’s the 1h chart.  Please ignore the near horizontal lines cutting across the charts.  The lines drawn on the weekly timeframe becomes abit haywire in the lower timeframe.

It looks like a decline has started. There’s a trendline break, and the move down looks fairly impulsive.  Meaning we might be having a zig-zag for a correction.  My alternate count is that my wave 3, is in fact wave 5, and we are looking at a larger decline.  Either way, my short term view is for this to go lower.

1h Chart

I’ll be looking to go short at the 50%-61.8% retracement levels – see the shorting area on my chart.  Those levels also happen to coincide with some natural support and resistance levels.  Once the corrective move up unfolds in a more countable A-B-C pattern, then we can have a more precise entry level target.

Stop loss will be about 100-125 pips away behind the peak of the high.  I’ll keep my size small.  Once price confirms, I’ll lower the stop loss and increase my position size to manage my risk.

Good luck with your trading!

EURJPY Trade Triangles (22 Jun 2012)

Some of you know that I’m testing the Trade Triangles from INO Market Club.  I think they make a good add-on, although the signals don’t come all that often (after all, overtrading can kill you too.)

There’s been a new Trade Triangle for EURJPY.  If you had been following my EURJPY Forecast, you know that I’ve been fairly cautious of this pair due to volatility, however, price rejected off the bottom of my corrective channel as I predicted and made it’s merry way up.  I was cautious and had taken profit early.

The INO Marketclub now has a nice Trade Triangle for EURJPY, fairly hot off the oven.

The signal is for a long at 100.90, and it appears that a fractal high has been broken, so it does make for a logical location for a long position.  Looking at the technicals of the daily chart, you will need a fairly large stop loss. Or if you wish to be conservative, you can place it at the low of the signal bar.

Let’s watch and see.

AUDUSD Forecast (18 Jun 2012)

 

Daily Chart

On a larger timeframe, prices are going up nicely as forecasted late last month. I think it may have a ways up to go before coming back down. We can draw nice channel lines which bounds the price movement. Let’s take a look at the smaller time frame.

4H Chart

Please ignore the lines.  They are the same lines from the daily chart, just that they look more confusing when we zoom in.  I’m counting the middle segment of overlapping waves as a running triangle.  That’s the best count I can come up with the wave structure I’m seeing.   Can look to trade the AUDUSD Long for the wave 5 if it retraces back.

I am finding the wave structure difficult to count this period, so I’m keeping my losses tight and my trading conservative by taking profits along the way.

AUDUSD Forecast (7 Jun 2012)

 

In my AUDUSD Forecast (23 May 2012), I indicated that the AUDUSD decline may be ready for a rally.  Since then, prices have shot up strongly suggesting that may wavecount may be in effect.

Weekly Chart

The strong green candlestick suggest that we may be having a rally starting.

15min Chart

I’m counting the wave upwards as impulsive waves.  Looking at a wave v to be completed before I see a wave 4 decline.

AUDUSD Forecast (23 May 2012)

I had the opportunity to meet up with RayG and FuzzyLogic from the forums in “My Trading Room”.  Thanks for joining in!

Both of them had a really great way of trading, and I’m thinking of making FuzzyLogic my mentor in price action trading. Haha!

During the session, I had an extensive session with RayG on wavecounts on the AUDUSD on a weekly timeframe.  There was some different in opinion, but RayG’s inputs helped me solidify my thinking and pushed me to think of alternative wave counts!  Thanks for getting rid of my laziness!

Forecast (Weekly Timeframe)

Here’s the forecast:

Preferred Count

’m counting a complex correction for wave B on the way right now.  If wave Y unfolds and goes beyond 1.10930, that would make my entire ABC structure an expanded flat, and bring the C wave all the way down to around 0.84967 which is

1. within the 50%-61.8% retracement, and
2. also within the price zone of the 4th wave of the one lesser degree.

If my preferred count is correct, we would have completed (or is completing) wave b of Y and would be facing a turn around soon. I’ll be looking for fractal breakouts in the lower time frame to enter the market.

Alternate Count

For the alternate count. In seat of a complex correction.  I’m counting my wave W as a completed Wave B, that makes us currently in a Wave C decline which is yet to complete.  What keeps me away from this count is that the move recent move down looks a lot more alike a zig-zig than a impulse wave downwards.

So time will tell, and I don’t typically trade on the weekly and daily timeframe. But it gives a very good overview of the general direction for trading my lower timeframe.

AUDUSD Forecast (29 Mar 2011)

 

I’ve two counts for the unfolding waves for AUDUSD.  Overall, the pattern looks very corrective to me, and I’m thinking we are still in a wave 4.

GREEN – Counts the pattern as a complex correction with a triangle in the middle.
BLUE – Counts for prices to move higher to complete a wave B before decline.

In the larger term, I looking out for a drop, before a final rally for a wave 5 of V before large decline.

AUDUSD Forecast (3 Feb 2011)

Daily Chart
Looks very much like a triangle forming, with longer term bias towards the downside.

4h Chart
The down move doesn’t look impulsive enough, and may be a wave 4.  Which would imply one more leg up before dropping.  I also like to see a MACD divergence when a top is forming.

AUDUSD Forecast (3 Dec 2010)

In my previous post, I mentioned that AUDUSD appeared to be making a downward move in an expanded diagonal.  After dropping past 0.9544 previous low (counted as wave 5 of the diagonal) the pair made a quick advance upwards.

This is a beautiful trade for those who made an entry upon the break of the upper trend line.

The markets appear to have made an ABC move upwards, with a (running?) triangle for wave B.  Wave C wave is almost equals to wave A, in fact slightly longer, and may indicate the end of the advance. 

Looking at the 5min Chart it appears that a 5 wave advance had been completed as well.  I’d monitor the down move more closely to see if it will continue is downward move.

AUDUSD Forecast (1 Dec 2010)

Did a wave count for AUDUSD.  Looks like it is completing its final move down with an expanding Diagonal coupled with a MACD Divergence.  Keeping track of this pair’s movement to see how it plays out.

AUDUSD Forecast (31 Oct 2010)

 

Due to work commitments, I’ve stopped looking at the markets for quite awhile.  I’ve decided to come back and pick this up again.  For a start, I’m going to try my hand at the AUDUSD chart.

Looking at the Weekly Chart. 

I was counting the sharp impulsive drop from July 2008 as a larger degree wave (1) as it looks very much like an impulse wave.  However, the recent high has broken its starting point so it could very much be a wave (A) instead.  Even if we were to assume it was a zig-zag, zig-zags typically does not make a new price high.

Nonetheless, I’m counting its ascend as a corrective wave, where we have completed a wave 4 expanding triangle and am now wave 5.

below is my wave count for wave 5 on the daily.

I’ve broken one cardinal rule in my wave counts (wave 4 overlaps wave 1), so I am somewhat cautious that my count is wrong.  Regardless, here’s what I have.

My suspicion is that AUDUSD would not break parity as yet.  Instead, it would retrace to around wave 4 of the lesser degree, which also corresponds to a 61.8% fib level.  In addition, it is also a significant support and resistance level.

In short (no pun intended), I’d short AUDUSD if it rose back to around 0.9950 to keep my risk level low.  And if it goes to around 0.8820  I’ll look to go long.

Good luck with your trading!

AUDUSD Forecast (29 May 09)

Here's an update on the AUDUSD chart I put up about 10 days back.



Prices have rallied since the last chart, and appears to be stalling at the bottom of wave iii decline (See brown line). My preferred count is a 1-2-3 and waiting for wave 4 and 5 to complete. An alternative count would be an A-B-C, where wave A = Wave C (If you measure Wave 1 and 3, they are rather similar in length).

In anycase, stalling below the wave iii decline (Brown line) could mean a decline from this level before its next (anticipated wave 5) rally.

Good luck with your trading!

AUDUSD Forecast (18 May 09)

Hi folks, I know its been an obscene amount of time since my last elliott wave forecast. I'd been rather busy with work, and simply didn't have the time to look at my charts, much less do up one for sharing.

BUT, I've finally done one up quickly for sharing. It is not going to be as detailed as some of my previous posts with multiple charts... this one only has one.

Firstly, would just like to share that.... I'd missed a fantastic rally that I had previously put on my charts but since I had not been actively monitoring.... I had totally missed it! If you are familiar with how I draw my charts, the arrows that I draw always start at the last available candlestick at time of drawing. So if you look at the blue arrow... its a beautiful chart! But what's missed is missed.... no matter what the reason. So here's my next anticipated price movement.

I've counted a five wave down, and a possible expanded flat (ABC*). If prices do rally to 0.8300-0.8400, I think its a good level to short.

* The expanded-flat should perhaps be more accurately labeled W-X-Y, because wave C should be a five-wave structure rather than a three-wave structure.
Since Elliott Wave is fractal in nature, I'm not too anal about the
labeling. But is good to be clear what we are looking at.

Here are the reasons for shorting:

a) Wave C is 2.618 of Wave A - I'm counting this as an expanded flat correction. Generally, Wave C is 1.618 of Wave A, but we can see that prices have broken through that level, which happens to also coincide with another interesting level (where wave c = wave b)

b) Wave c is 1.618 of wave a - In a flat correction, wave c can be the same length as wave a, or 1.618 of wave a. In this case, I'm counting 1.618 of wave a since it has broken through the wave a = wave c level.

c) 0.8380 is the 0.618 retracement of wave 1 / (A). Now at this point, all I'm counting is five-waves down, but I have no idea if its a wave 1 or a wave (A). In anycase, a 0.618 level is a pretty popular/strong retracement resistance level.

d) 0.8380 is near the termination point of wave iv. Although the guideline for depth of correction is usually applied to wave 4 corrections, sometimes we can also use it for wave 2 corrections if the lesser degree wave iii is subdivided. In this case since wave iii happens to be sub-divided, so it will probably make a pretty good resistance level.


So here are my 4 beautiful reasons for shorting at that level. But here's what you have to be aware of. Based on this count, the stop-loss is going to be above the start of wave 1 / (A), around 0.9850. That's a risk of about 1,550 pips! Make sure you have a large enough account size and can afford to take the trade. Remember, risk management, risk management, risk management!
If you can't afford to take this trade, wait for price confirmation i.e. for prices to start making 5-waves move downwards before entering.

That's all for now! Good luck with your trades!

AUDUSD Trade

My AUDUSD position has been stopped out, possibly proving my wavecount wrong. But we recall that flat corrections can make new price extremes.

The non-farm payroll data was 'unexpectedly' low. -159k actual vs -100k expected.
I say unexpected in quotes because I was expecting USD to weaken further. And besides that, many companies especially banks have been laying off staff.

In anycase, technicals are of key importance to me. So I'm taking my losses and waiting for the next opportunity. Its always painful to take losses, but necessary sometimes.

Take care and becareful out there.

AUDUSD Forecast (27 Sep 08) - Correction

My friend told me that his wavecount was different from mine.... so I went back a took a second look at how I did mine. And I realised.... my wavecount was wrong.

While I said that a Wave b of B was underway, my charts actually labelled wave b of C. What's wrong with that? Well.... Wave C sub-divides into 5 waves, not 3. So if I label a-b-c, I'd be wrong. Unless of course, Wave C is a diagonal and subdivides into 3-3-3-3-3. That's one possibility, but its too early to tell.

Another possibility is that, instead of a A-B-C. What I have is a W-X-Y. Tada!! Each in itself can be a contained 3-waves. And if that's true, then we can look for alternation between Waves X and Y.

Overall, I must say that this chart isn't very easy to label for me. Haha... and here's my revised chart with the W-X-Y count.



There's a reason why I'm still counting it as a corrective move. Overall, wave structure takes precedent. And the waves I've labelled W-X-Y all look corrective to me.

So in summary, I still think that at the 4h chart its either a
A) A-B-C Expanded Flat Correction with C wave as a Diagonal.
B) W-X-Y Correction (that still looks like an expanded flat?? haha)

I thought we'll take a look at other people's count as well. I've taken this from DailyFX, and its a chart by Jamie Saettele.



If I look at the significant low, I agree with her that the move up looks corrective and warrants an a-b-c count. The only thing that I disagree with is the labelling of wave v. Which doesn't look implusive nor look like a diagonal to me. Since interpretation of the charts are subjective, I suggest you pull up your own charts and make-up your own opinion. Her chart could very well be the correct one.

Looking at Fundamentals next week.... Markets could well be consolidating while waiting for non-farm payroll on Friday. Before that, Aussie has quite a number of news events too. It'll be a busy week... keep a close watch if you can!

Alright, that's it for now. Pretty long post compared to yesterday's. I hope I can find another chart with a clearer wave count.

AUDUSD Forecast (26 Sep 08)

Looks like AUDUSD is headed way way down, and my count on the AUDUSD is shown below.



In a nutshell, I'm counting it as a wave 4 (I used roman numerals in the chart) expanded flat retracement. On the daily chart, I'm expecting price to move further up for shorting opportunities. Fundamentally speaking, with all the chaos on the bailout proposal, I think no one knows where the dollar is really headed. So I'm sticking to technicals.

Lets look at the 4h charts.



I think its currently in its b of B wave. So I'm looking for a long opportunity around .8080, Stop .7790, and take profit around .8500. Because of the strong support/resistance level there, it'll probably bounce off that level and I may make another long trade if the opportunity arises. Alternatively, if you have a large enough position size, you can take your first profit at .8500 and let the remaining run to about .8770 (that's 1.616 of the A wave). I still think it will probably bounce off the .8500 level though.

Well, that's it for this short post. Good luck with your trading!