GBPUSD Forecast (16 Sep 2012)

I’m back!  I’ve been away from trading for so long that I can hardly believe all the huge moves I’ve missed!  Nonetheless, trading opportunities are always around.  Thanks to the prodding of my friend Soon Chye, I’m looking at my charts again.

Might be alittle rusty from the downtime, but here it is… my view on GBPUSD.

GBPUSD 8H Chart

Even with the current USD weakness, the charts seem to imply that a short opportunity is coming soon. Here’re the reasons I see for preparing a short.

1. The move is clearly parabolic, and it is common for parabolic moves to retrace.
2. I’m counting the end of a corrective wave up.  Even though the moves are somewhat parabolic, it does look corrective with its overlapping waves
3. It is approaching a significant resistance level (30 Apr High), and a round figure (1.6300)

Reasons for holding back:

1. I think there’s going to be a pull back and then a higher high before the move retraces.  I still don’t see an divergence on the 8h and 4h at this point.
2. I can’t get a good count on the final v wave, which looks like it still has one more wave to go.

There’s still a short term opportunity for trading.  If you are able to watch the charts, I’m fairly sure that even if price does break 1.6300, you will still achieve a nice bounce (probably 30-50pips) off that level.

Good luck with your trading!

Trading Psychology: Don't Trade With Your Ego

Elliott Wave Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy talks about "the elephant in the room" that no trader can ignore.

By Elliott Wave International

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy is a busy man. Along with his regular duties at Elliott Wave International, he prepares 3-5 video lessons each week that teach technical traders how to anticipate -- and act on -- trading opportunities.

Subscribers say that what sets Jeffrey's educational service apart is his unique ability to combine easy-to-understand, actionable advice along with a no-nonsense, uncensored look at trading psychology.

Of course, Elliott Wave Junctures is full of useful charts and technical tips. Yet some of Jeffrey's most priceless content is his straightforward discussion of the problems that most traders face -- but few experts talk about.

When I asked Jeffrey about one such lesson that resonated with his subscribers (we call it his "Patience and Persistence" episode), here's what he said:

I think that hit home because it was honest -- someone is finally talking about the elephant in the room.

Patience. Because of modern society, everything is "instant gratification." Mobile communication, fast food, you name it. Whenever you're counting waves, there's a tendency to rush the wave count. It's something that you'll always have to be on guard against. That's why I insist on confirming price action. When the pattern is indeed done, it will tell you it's done. When you're not patient, you tend to want to pick tops and bottoms.

Persistence: Just because things don't unfold exactly the way you want doesn't mean you're wrong. If you ask for a raise, and you only get 60% of what you asked for, that's not a failure. What's important is the movement; the general trend; your overall assessment of motive wave vs. corrective wave.

Being able to top-tick or bottom-tick the market is ego trading, and it'll cost you.

In my mind, there's nothing in the world that's worth anything that doesn't take a little bit of patience and persistence to achieve. A relationship, an education or career, a healthy body: how do you get these things? You keep working at it; you keep showing up every day.

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14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know

Learn about managing your emotions, developing your trading methodology, and the importance of discipline in your trading decisions in The Best of Trader's Classroom, a FREE 45-page eBook from Elliott Wave International.

Since 1999, Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader's Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. Now you can get "the best of the best" in these 14 lessons that offer the most critical information every trader should know.

Find out why traders fail, the three phases of a trader's education, and how to make yourself a better trader with lessons on the Wave Principle, bar patterns, Fibonacci sequences, and more!

Don't miss your chance to improve your trading. Download your FREE eBook today >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Trading Psychology: Don't Trade With Your Ego. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

See today's top 5 FX trading opportunities; join sought-after FX strategist for free webinar (exclusive invitation inside)

Hi folks!  Sorry for the long down-time.  My computer at home has died so, I’ve stopped trading and blogging for awhile and focus on other things in the meantime.

Then I saw that Elliott Wave International was providing a free webinar!  And having been a supporter of EWI for a long time, let me tell you that this is very rare.  Rare enough for me to be writing this post at work to let you know. 

Here is the invitation!

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Exclusive invitation for active FX traders

Our friends at Elliott Wave International have invited you to a free webinar with one of the most sought-after FX trading strategists in the world. OnWednesday, July 18 at 1 p.m. (Eastern time), learn how he called recent declines in the euro-dollar and see his 45-minute presentation titled "How to Trade the Top 5 Forex Opportunities Right Now."

Seating is limited to the first 1,000 active traders. Reserve your seat now.

At the time this email was sent, there were just 376 seats left.

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Dear Trader,

On July 6, the EUR/USD fell to a new 2-year low.

The reason for the drop?

From a fundamental standpoint: nothing.

• There were no new devastating reports out of Europe to explain the euro's weakness.
• Nor good economic news from the U.S. to explain the dollar's strength.
• Nothing other than the "eurozone worries "…which, frankly, have been with us for what, two-plus years now?

In other words, market fundamentals failed to give FX traders a tell-tale signal that a drop to a new low was imminent.

At least one technical analyst did see the drop coming in his charts and alerted his readers to the move with enough time to act.

Update For: Wednesday/Thursday, July 4/5
Posted On: Tue, 03 Jul 2012 14:57:51 GMT
EURUSD Last Price: 1.2605

[Topping] The impulsive but incomplete decline from near 1.3500 and the corrective recovery during the first three weeks of June dictate a bearish outlook. From below 1.2744, and ideally below 1.2693, the euro should resume its decline.

(Excerpted from Jim Martens' Currency Specialty Service, provided by Elliott Wave International.)

EWI Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens is one of the most sought-after FX strategists and trading instructors in the world. His technical, Elliott wave approach to the FX markets has been featured in numerous forex publications including ForexPros, FX Street, Trading Stocks and others. Jim has spoken at several trading events including The Traders Expo and Traders' Library Trading Forum.

Take this unique opportunity to learn from one of the world's top FX strategists. Follow this link to reserve your seat for his free webinar now.

How to Build Consistent Trading Success

EWI's senior analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shares with you practical advice on what it takes to improve the quality of your trades.
By Elliott Wave International

You've heard it all before:

• If you want to trade using Elliott wave analysis, to succeed you first need to understand its rules and guidelines.
• You need a clearly defined trading strategy (what? when? how? etc.) and the discipline to follow it.
• Additionally, your long-term success depends on adequate capitalization, money management skills and emotional self-control.

Do you meet these qualifications, yet still struggle in the markets? If so, you may find some helpful advice in this quick trading lesson from Elliott Wave Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy:

We all know that the Elliott Wave Principle categorizes 3-wave moves as corrections and, as such, countertrend moves. We also know that corrective moves demonstrate a stronger tendency to stay within parallel lines, and that within A-B-C corrections the most common relationship between waves C and A is equality. Furthermore, we know that the .618 retracement of wave 1 is the most common retracement for 2nd waves, and that the .382 retracement of wave 3 is the most common retracement for 4th waves.

Knowing that all of these are traits of countertrend moves, why do traders take positions when a pattern demonstrates only one or two of these traits? We do it because we lack patience. We lack the patience to wait for opportunities that meet all of our criteria, be it from an Elliott wave or another technical perspective.

What is the source of this impatience? It could be from not having a clearly defined trading methodology, or not being able to control emotions. However, I think impatience stems more from a sense of not wanting to miss anything. And because we're afraid of missing the next big move, or perhaps because we want to pick up some lost ground, we act on less-than-ideal trade setups.

Another reason traders lack patience is boredom. That's because -- and this may sound odd at first -- "textbook" Elliott wave patterns and ideal, high-probability trade setups don't occur all that often. In fact, I have always gone by the rule of thumb that for any given market there are only 2-3 tradable moves in your chosen time frame. For example, during a normal trading day, there are typically only two or three trades that warrant attention from day traders. In a given week, short-term traders will usually find only two or three good opportunities worth participating in, while long-term traders will most likely find only two or three viable trade setups in a given month, or even a year.

So as traders wait for these "textbook" Elliott wave patterns and ideal, high-probability trade setups to occur, boredom sets in. Too often, we get itchy fingers and want to trade any chart pattern that comes along that looks even remotely like a high-probability trade setup.

The big question then is, "How do you overcome the tendency to be impatient?" Understand the triggers that cause it: fear of missing out, and boredom.

The first step in overcoming impatience is to consciously define the minimum requirements of an acceptable trade setup and vow to accept nothing less. Next, feel comfortable in knowing that the markets will be around tomorrow, next week, next year and beyond, so there is plenty of time to wait for the ideal opportunity. Remember, trading is not a race, and over-trading does little to improve your bottom line.

If there is one piece of advice I can offer that will improve your trading skills, it is simply to be patient. Be patient and wait for only those textbook wave patterns and ideal, high-probability trade setups to act. Because when it comes to being a consistently successful trader, it's all about the quality of your trades, not the quantity.

Developing patience isn't easy -- yet, if you are serious about improving the quality of your trades, it is vital.

How much more successful would you be if you could develop the patience to act only on high-probability trade setups?

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Jeffrey Kennedy shares his 20 years of wisdom in analysis and trading -- to help you decide when to act -- in a new FREE report, 6 Lessons to Help You Find Trading Opportunities in Any Market.

This report includes 6 different lessons that you can apply to your charts immediately. Learn how to spot and act on trading opportunities in the markets you follow.

Get Your Free Trading Lessons Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How to Build Consistent Trading Success. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

EURJPY Forecast (25 Jul 2012)

Prices have tumbled down as expected, though alittle faster that I thought.  Prices are now at the bottom of the channel line again.  This is a good time to pay attention to the price action.

MeltUp: The Beginning Of A US Currency Crisis

The documentary proves through facts and statistics how hyperinflation in the U.S. is now inevitable and how Americans could soon see the end of entitlement programs they have become dependent on to live and survive. NIA believes Meltup is the most important economic documentary ever produced in world history and a must see for you, your friends, and family members.

Meltup features Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Tom Woods, and others.

I think the documentary has some interesting points, although I’m not sure I fully agree with all of the views. Keep an open mind as you watch, but also keep your critical faculty active. Enjoy!

Kiva Free Trials

This has absolutely nothing to do with trading.  And I think that all of us should give back to the community in one way or another.  In spite of what’s happening in our lives, if we were to look deeper, I’m sure we all have things to be thankful for.

I’m a support of Kiva.org, here’s a description of Kiva lifted off their website:

We are a non-profit organization with a mission to connect people through lending to alleviate poverty. Leveraging the internet and a worldwide network of microfinance institutions, Kiva lets individuals lend as little as $25 to help create opportunity around the world.

There are many charitable organizations around, and one reason why I support Kiva is because I see that the people on kiva are people who are working to improve their own lives.  I’m definitely less inclined to contribute to the less fortunate who have victim mentality.

If you are keen to give this a try, there’s an anonymous donor who is supporting this free trials. 

Click here to give Kiva a try at no cost.  When you sign up via this link, I’ll know that you have signed up via my referral… I receive absolutely nothing, except the satisfaction I’ve made a little contribution to this effort.

And just in case you need some evidence that I’m doing this myself, my kiva profile can be found here.

Let’s make a difference.  

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About Kiva Free Trials

What better way to try Kiva than to try it for free? Invite your friends while supplies last. Free trial loans are available to the first new users who join Kiva through this promotion and make a free trial loan.

These free trials will be financed by friends of Kiva, allowing the new lender to make one $25 loan free of charge. These free trial loans are disbursed to borrowers in the same way other loans are disbursed on Kiva. However, since the sponsor is funding the free trial loan, any repayment funds from the free trial loan will go back to the sponsor, not to the free trial lender. New lenders invited during the promotion may choose to use their own funds to make a loan, in which case repayments will go back to the lender.

Supplies of free trials are limited to one (1) per new user, and will be made available on a “first claimed” basis.